Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 09/08, 14:00

Prediction: Fardu Ferghana vs Pakhtakor Tashkent II

Team pages: Fardu Ferghana · Pakhtakor Tashkent II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Fardu Ferghana2.07

Pakhtakor Tashkent II0.81

1X2

66% 21% 13%

Fardu Ferghana Draw Pakhtakor Tashkent II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Fardu Ferghana 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Pakhtakor Tashkent II 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Fardu Ferghana 1–0 Pakhtakor Tashkent II (1 last)

Pakhtakor Tashkent II0-1Fardu Ferghana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fardu Ferghana 1510 · Pakhtakor Tashkent II 1356

	Fardu Ferghana	Draw	Pakhtakor Tashkent II
Our model	66%	22%	13%
Market	67%	20%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fardu Ferghana (rating 1510 vs 1356).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fardu Ferghana	Pakhtakor Tashkent II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	0.2 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/25/38%	0/38/63%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.50

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.33▲	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50
2	8.50 → 6.50▼	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
09:10 +33’	1.25	5.00	8.50
14:01 +11’	1.33▲	4.50▼	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fardu Ferghana 1–0–0 Pakhtakor Tashkent II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/04/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	0-1 HT 0-0	Fardu Ferghana

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	13	11	2	0	30	8	35
2	Shurtan	13	9	2	2	22	14	29
3	Kattaqorgon	13	8	3	2	17	7	27
4	Fardu Ferghana	13	6	4	3	21	21	22
5	FC Lochin	13	6	4	3	20	14	22
6	Gazalkent	13	6	3	4	24	16	21
7	Olympic Mobiuz	13	6	3	4	27	15	21
8	Metallurg Bekabad	13	6	3	4	30	12	21
9	FC Yaypan Fergana	13	4	2	7	14	23	14
10	Jayxun	13	4	2	7	15	20	14
11	Respublika FA	13	3	3	7	14	21	12
12	BuxDu	13	3	1	9	12	30	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	13	1	1	11	7	31	4
14	PFC Terdu	13	1	1	11	9	30	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fardu Ferghana	Pakhtakor Tashkent II
FC Yaypan Fergana	1-0 W	0-1 L
Metallurg Bekabad	0-7 L	0-5 L
Kattaqorgon	0-3 L	0-2 L
Olympic Mobiuz	2-1 W	1-4 L
BuxDu	1-1 D	0-2 L
Respublika FA	1-1 D	0-3 L
FK Orol Nukus	0-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Fardu Ferghana (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fardu Ferghana

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/08	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	5-1	3	4	W
31/07	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
25/07	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
08/06	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-3	0-7	6	5	L
04/06	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
29/05	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
12/05	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
06/05	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-1	10	4	D
01/05	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L

Pakhtakor Tashkent II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/08	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
30/07	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
24/07	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
08/06	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-3	4	3	L
03/06	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-3	–	–	L
30/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
22/05	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
05/05	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
01/05	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-3	0-3	5	4	L
25/04	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-5	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fardu Ferghana vs Pakhtakor Tashkent II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fardu Ferghana win (66%). Probabilities: Fardu Ferghana 66%, draw 21%, Pakhtakor Tashkent II 13%.

How many goals are expected in Fardu Ferghana vs Pakhtakor Tashkent II?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Fardu Ferghana 2.07 · Pakhtakor Tashkent II 0.81), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Fardu Ferghana vs Pakhtakor Tashkent II?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.