Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 10/08, 14:30

Prediction: FC Lochin vs PFC Terdu

Team pages: FC Lochin · PFC Terdu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

FC Lochin2.56

PFC Terdu0.56

1X2

81% 13% 6%

FC Lochin Draw PFC Terdu

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FC Lochin 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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PFC Terdu 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Lochin 1–0 PFC Terdu (1 last)

PFC Terdu0-2FC Lochin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Lochin 1523 · PFC Terdu 1390

	FC Lochin	Draw	PFC Terdu
Our model	80%	15%	5%
Market	81%	11%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Lochin (rating 1523 vs 1390).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Lochin	PFC Terdu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	0.6 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/38/25%	14/29/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	1.3 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.13

X8.00

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.95

2 (+2.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
10:18 +9’	1.13	8.00	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Lochin 1–0–0 PFC Terdu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	PFC Terdu	0-2	FC Lochin

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	13	11	2	0	30	8	35
2	Shurtan	13	9	2	2	22	14	29
3	Kattaqorgon	13	8	3	2	17	7	27
4	Fardu Ferghana	13	6	4	3	21	21	22
5	FC Lochin	13	6	4	3	20	14	22
6	Gazalkent	13	6	3	4	24	16	21
7	Olympic Mobiuz	13	6	3	4	27	15	21
8	Metallurg Bekabad	13	6	3	4	30	12	21
9	FC Yaypan Fergana	13	4	2	7	14	23	14
10	Jayxun	13	4	2	7	15	20	14
11	Respublika FA	13	3	3	7	14	21	12
12	BuxDu	13	3	1	9	12	30	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	13	1	1	11	7	31	4
14	PFC Terdu	13	1	1	11	9	30	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Lochin	PFC Terdu
Fardu Ferghana	1-2 L	1-5 L
Olympic Mobiuz	3-2 W	0-3 L
Kattaqorgon	2-0 W	0-2 L
BuxDu	4-0 W	0-2 L
Gazalkent	0-1 L	2-1 W
Respublika FA	0-0 D	2-4 L
FK Orol Nukus	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FC Lochin (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Lochin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
31/07	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-5	2	3	L
25/07	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
18/07	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
09/06	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
31/05	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	4-0	–	–	W
15/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
05/05	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
01/05	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
26/04	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-0	5	6	W

PFC Terdu

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	1-5	2	4	L
30/07	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
24/07	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
10/06	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
04/06	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-3	2-4	3	7	L
29/05	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
17/05	Jayxun Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
11/05	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	1-2	2	0	L
06/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
29/04	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Lochin vs PFC Terdu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Lochin win (81%). Probabilities: FC Lochin 81%, draw 13%, PFC Terdu 6%.

How many goals are expected in FC Lochin vs PFC Terdu?

The model expects 3.12 goals (FC Lochin 2.56 · PFC Terdu 0.56), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Lochin vs PFC Terdu?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.