Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 10/08, 16:00

Prediction: Olympic Mobiuz vs Shurtan

Team pages: Olympic Mobiuz · Shurtan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Olympic Mobiuz1.82

Shurtan1.14

1X2

53% 25% 23%

Olympic Mobiuz Draw Shurtan

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Olympic Mobiuz 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Shurtan 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Olympic Mobiuz 0–1 Shurtan (1 last)

Shurtan1-0Olympic Mobiuz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olympic Mobiuz 1545 · Shurtan 1523

	Olympic Mobiuz	Draw	Shurtan
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	53%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olympic Mobiuz	Shurtan
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.4	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.70

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:26 +1’	1.70	3.70	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Olympic Mobiuz 0–0–1 Shurtan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Shurtan	1-0 HT 1-0	Olympic Mobiuz

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	13	11	2	0	30	8	35
2	Shurtan	13	9	2	2	22	14	29
3	Kattaqorgon	13	8	3	2	17	7	27
4	Fardu Ferghana	13	6	4	3	21	21	22
5	FC Lochin	13	6	4	3	20	14	22
6	Gazalkent	13	6	3	4	24	16	21
7	Olympic Mobiuz	13	6	3	4	27	15	21
8	Metallurg Bekabad	13	6	3	4	30	12	21
9	FC Yaypan Fergana	13	4	2	7	14	23	14
10	Jayxun	13	4	2	7	15	20	14
11	Respublika FA	13	3	3	7	14	21	12
12	BuxDu	13	3	1	9	12	30	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	13	1	1	11	7	31	4
14	PFC Terdu	13	1	1	11	9	30	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olympic Mobiuz	Shurtan
Jayxun	2-1 W	2-1 W
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	4-1 W	2-0 W
PFC Terdu	3-0 W	1-0 W
Respublika FA	1-0 W	2-1 W
Metallurg Bekabad	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Olympic Mobiuz (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Olympic Mobiuz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
30/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	4-1	7	3	W
24/07	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
18/07	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-2	2-3	12	4	L
14/06	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	6-1	1	5	W
29/05	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-2	1-2	10	4	L
14/05	Respublika FA Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
09/05	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan Cup	2-1	3-1	5	4	W
04/05	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
30/04	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-1	2	1	D

Shurtan

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	4-2	5	3	W
30/07	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	2-1	2	0	W
24/07	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-3	2	8	L
10/06	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
04/06	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
30/05	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/05	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	0-4	3	3	L
15/05	FK Andijan Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	1-3	6	0	L
05/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
29/04	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olympic Mobiuz vs Shurtan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Olympic Mobiuz win (53%). Probabilities: Olympic Mobiuz 53%, draw 25%, Shurtan 23%.

How many goals are expected in Olympic Mobiuz vs Shurtan?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Olympic Mobiuz 1.82 · Shurtan 1.14), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Olympic Mobiuz vs Shurtan?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.