Football · USA MLS · 31/10, 19:00

Prediction: FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union

Team pages: FC Cincinnati · Philadelphia Union

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.08Total

FC Cincinnati1.88

Philadelphia Union2.2

1X2

33% 22% 45%

FC Cincinnati Draw Philadelphia Union

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cincinnati 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWLLWW

Philadelphia Union 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWDL

Head-to-head

FC Cincinnati 2–4 Philadelphia Union (6 last)

Philadelphia Union5-0FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati0-1Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union4-1FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati4-1Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union1-2FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati2-4Philadelphia Union

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Philadelphia Union (rating 1479 vs 1581).
H2H favours Philadelphia Union: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cincinnati	Philadelphia Union
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.4	3.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 5.7	3.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.01

Under 3.751.83

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:00

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.68 → 2.64▼	Pinn 2.64
X	3.91 → 4.02▲	Pinn 4.02
2	2.33 → 2.38▲	Pinn 2.38

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:42 +6’	2.68	3.91	2.33
02:54 +6’	2.64▼	4.02▲	2.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cincinnati 2–0–4 Philadelphia Union

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/09/26 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	5-0 HT 2-0	FC Cincinnati
31/08/25 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	0-1 HT 0-0	Philadelphia Union
02/03/25 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	4-1 HT 2-0	FC Cincinnati
07/02/25 World Club Friendlies	FC Cincinnati	4-1	Philadelphia Union
20/10/24 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Cincinnati
14/08/24 Leagues Cup	FC Cincinnati	2-4 HT 0-0	Philadelphia Union

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	66	23	70
2	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	51	42	55
3	Inter Miami CF	31	15	10	6	73	53	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	55	46	51
5	Charlotte FC	31	13	8	10	55	48	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	62	50	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	12	6	13	60	72	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	64	71	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	41	56	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	50	49	38
11	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	48	59	36
12	New York City FC	31	8	11	12	45	43	35
13	DC United	31	7	12	12	38	55	33
14	Atlanta United	31	8	6	17	39	54	30
15	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	36	62	25

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cincinnati	Philadelphia Union
New England Revolution	2-3 L	1-2 L
CF Montreal	1-3 L	2-0 W
Charlotte FC	3-3 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Philadelphia Union (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Cincinnati

LLDDLWLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	DC United USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
22/10	DC United USA MLS	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
18/10	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
15/10	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-2	2-3	12	4	L
11/10	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
27/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
20/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	2-2	7	0	D
13/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	12	3	D
10/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-2	0-5	1	3	L
30/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	0-4	4	5	L

Philadelphia Union

WWWWWWWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
17/10	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-0	2-2	7	3	D
15/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	3-1	7	6	W
11/10	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
27/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	7	6	W
20/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-3	4-3	4	7	W
14/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	5-0	4	4	W
10/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-0	5-0	7	3	W
06/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	2-0	6	8	W
30/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	3-1	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Philadelphia Union win (45%). Probabilities: FC Cincinnati 33%, draw 22%, Philadelphia Union 45%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union?

The model expects 4.08 goals (FC Cincinnati 1.88 · Philadelphia Union 2.2), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.