Prediction: Nautico vs Vila Nova
Team pages: Nautico · Vila Nova
- Vila Nova4-3Nautico
- Nautico2-1Vila Nova
- Nautico1-2Vila Nova
- Vila Nova2-0Nautico
- Vila Nova1-0Nautico
- Nautico2-0Vila Nova
| Nautico | Draw | Vila Nova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Market | 34% | 30% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vila Nova (rating 1493 vs 1560).
- H2H favours Vila Nova: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nautico | Vila Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.1 | 3.2 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nautico 2–0–4 Vila Nova
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie B | Vila Nova | 4-3 HT 4-1 | Nautico |
| 09/03/23 Copa do Brasil | Nautico | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Vila Nova |
| 20/08/22 Brazil Serie B | Nautico | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Vila Nova |
| 07/05/22 Brazil Serie B | Vila Nova | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Nautico |
| 11/09/21 Brazil Serie B | Vila Nova | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Nautico |
| 16/06/21 Brazil Serie B | Nautico | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Vila Nova |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EC Juventude | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 37 | 19 | 59 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 58 |
| 3 | Gremio Novorizontino | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 54 | 27 | 57 |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 37 | 27 | 56 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 28 | 53 |
| 6 | Atletico GO | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 40 | 30 | 52 |
| 7 | CRB | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 49 | 45 | 51 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 50 |
| 9 | Operario PR | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 44 | 43 | 48 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 32 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 47 |
| 11 | Goias | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 32 | 40 | 45 |
| 12 | Sao Bernardo SP | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 44 | 34 | 45 |
| 13 | Nautico | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 39 | 40 | 42 |
| 14 | Ceara | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 35 | 39 | 42 |
| 15 | Athletic Club MG | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 36 | 38 | 38 |
| 17 | Avai | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 32 | 43 | 33 |
| 18 | Londrina | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 40 | 47 | 28 |
| 19 | America MG | 32 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 53 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 68 | 13 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nautico | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Operario PR | 3-3 D | 0-0 D |
| America MG | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Botafogo SP | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Athletic Club MG | 2-1 W | 0-5 L |
| Ceara | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Vila Nova (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nautico
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 22/09 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/09 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 10/09 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 04/09 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 19/08 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
Vila Nova
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 26/09 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 15/09 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 11/09 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 05/09 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
0-3 | 0-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 30/08 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 20/08 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
3-0 | 6-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nautico vs Vila Nova?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Vila Nova win (36%). Probabilities: Nautico 34%, draw 30%, Vila Nova 36%.
How many goals are expected in Nautico vs Vila Nova?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Nautico 1.3 · Vila Nova 1.33), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Nautico vs Vila Nova?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.