Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 27/10, 17:00

Prediction: JK Trans Narva vs JK Nomme United

Team pages: JK Trans Narva · JK Nomme United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

JK Trans Narva1.79

JK Nomme United1.53

1X2

43% 25% 32%

JK Trans Narva Draw JK Nomme United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Trans Narva 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLDDLL

JK Nomme United 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLW

Head-to-head

JK Trans Narva 3–3 JK Nomme United (6 last)

JK Nomme United1-2JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva1-2JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United5-1JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva3-4JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United0-4JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva2-1JK Nomme United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Trans Narva 1415 · JK Nomme United 1470

	JK Trans Narva	Draw	JK Nomme United
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	43%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Nomme United (rating 1415 vs 1470).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Trans Narva	JK Nomme United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2	1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +3’	2.10	3.60	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Trans Narva 3–0–3 JK Nomme United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/07/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	1-2 HT 0-2	JK Trans Narva
13/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	1-2 HT 0-1	JK Nomme United
11/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	5-1 HT 2-1	JK Trans Narva
24/01/26 Europe Friendlies	JK Trans Narva	3-4 HT 0-2	JK Nomme United
21/09/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	0-4 HT 0-2	JK Trans Narva
26/07/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	2-1 HT 1-1	JK Nomme United

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	25	6	1	87	22	81
2	FC Flora Tallinn	33	19	1	13	63	47	58
3	Paide Linnameeskond	32	17	6	9	52	39	57
4	JK Nomme Kalju	32	15	6	11	54	33	51
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	32	15	2	15	42	51	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	33	15	2	16	48	48	47
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	32	10	6	16	43	63	36
8	FC Kuressaare	32	10	5	17	34	51	35
9	JK Nomme United	32	10	1	21	50	74	31
10	JK Trans Narva	32	5	5	22	25	70	20

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Trans Narva	JK Nomme United
Paide Linnameeskond	1-2 L	1-3 L
Parnu JK Vaprus	2-2 D	0-1 L
JK Nomme Kalju	0-2 L	3-0 W
FC Flora Tallinn	2-2 D	2-3 L
JK Tammeka Tartu	0-2 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: JK Trans Narva (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Trans Narva

DLLLDLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
14/10	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
10/10	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-2	2	3	D
20/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
08/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-2	2-2	2	6	D
05/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	2	5	L
30/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
21/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
16/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	2	5	D

JK Nomme United

LLLLWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	3-0	7	6	W
13/10	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
10/10	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-4	5	5	L
19/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-3	3	2	L
12/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-3	3	1	L
08/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	5	7	W
05/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
29/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
23/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
14/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Trans Narva vs JK Nomme United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Trans Narva win (43%). Probabilities: JK Trans Narva 43%, draw 25%, JK Nomme United 32%.

How many goals are expected in JK Trans Narva vs JK Nomme United?

The model expects 3.32 goals (JK Trans Narva 1.79 · JK Nomme United 1.53), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Trans Narva vs JK Nomme United?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.