Football · Brazil Serie B · 07/10, 02:35

Prediction: Ponte Preta vs EC Juventude

Team pages: Ponte Preta · EC Juventude

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Ponte Preta0.46

EC Juventude1.95

1X2

8% 19% 73%

Ponte Preta Draw EC Juventude

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Ponte Preta 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLLWL

EC Juventude 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDDWLLW

Head-to-head

Ponte Preta 1–2–3 EC Juventude (6 last)

EC Juventude3-0Ponte Preta
EC Juventude0-0Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta0-0EC Juventude
EC Juventude2-1Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta1-3EC Juventude
EC Juventude0-1Ponte Preta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ponte Preta 1392 · EC Juventude 1541

	Ponte Preta	Draw	EC Juventude
Our model	7%	21%	72%
Market	8%	18%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EC Juventude (rating 1392 vs 1541).
H2H favours EC Juventude: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ponte Preta	EC Juventude
Goals for / against (FT)	0.2 / 2.5	1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.2	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3	1.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

111.00

X5.25

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)2.00

2 (-1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
23:12 +6’	11.00	5.25	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ponte Preta 1–2–3 EC Juventude

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Brazil Serie B	EC Juventude	3-0 HT 2-0	Ponte Preta
18/11/23 Brazil Serie B	EC Juventude	0-0 HT 0-0	Ponte Preta
19/07/23 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	0-0 HT 0-0	EC Juventude
30/12/20 Brazil Serie B	EC Juventude	2-1 HT 0-0	Ponte Preta
04/10/20 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	1-3 HT 0-1	EC Juventude
09/11/18 Brazil Serie B	EC Juventude	0-1 HT 0-0	Ponte Preta

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	31	16	8	7	35	19	56
2	Vila Nova	30	16	6	8	43	31	54
3	Gremio Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52	27	54
4	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33	27	53
5	Fortaleza	30	14	10	6	35	26	52
6	Atletico GO	30	13	10	7	37	27	49
7	CRB	31	14	6	11	46	44	48
8	Operario PR	31	13	9	9	43	41	48
9	Sport Recife	31	12	11	8	42	33	47
10	Sao Bernardo SP	31	12	9	10	43	32	45
11	Cuiaba	30	10	13	7	30	25	43
12	Goias	31	12	6	13	30	39	42
13	Athletic Club MG	31	10	12	9	37	35	42
14	Nautico	30	11	8	11	38	37	41
15	Ceara	30	9	9	12	33	39	36
16	Botafogo SP	30	9	8	13	34	36	35
17	Avai	30	8	6	16	30	41	30
18	Londrina	31	7	7	17	39	45	28
19	America MG	30	4	5	21	21	50	17
20	Ponte Preta	30	3	4	23	17	64	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ponte Preta	EC Juventude
CRB	1-0 W	2-1 W
Londrina	0-6 L	0-0 D
Sport Recife	0-2 L	1-2 L
America MG	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: EC Juventude (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ponte Preta

LDLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
20/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-6	0	3	L
11/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
06/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
30/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
23/08	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
20/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-6	4	3	L
15/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	6	9	D
08/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	6	L

EC Juventude

WDWWDDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
19/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
13/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
09/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
05/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
02/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
26/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	5	2	W
19/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
15/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
09/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ponte Preta vs EC Juventude?

According to our model, the most likely result is an EC Juventude win (73%). Probabilities: Ponte Preta 8%, draw 19%, EC Juventude 73%.

How many goals are expected in Ponte Preta vs EC Juventude?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Ponte Preta 0.46 · EC Juventude 1.95), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ponte Preta vs EC Juventude?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.