Football · Brazil Serie B · 09/10, 00:30

Prediction: Ceara vs Criciuma

Team pages: Ceara · Criciuma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

Ceara1.32

Criciuma1.07

1X2

41% 30% 29%

Ceara Draw Criciuma

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ceara 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWLDWD

Criciuma 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLLLWW

Head-to-head

Ceara 4–2–0 Criciuma (6 last)

Criciuma1-1Ceara
Ceara1-0Criciuma
Criciuma1-2Ceara
Criciuma1-1Ceara
Ceara3-1Criciuma
Criciuma2-3Ceara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ceara 1511 · Criciuma 1479

	Ceara	Draw	Criciuma
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ceara: 4-2-0.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ceara	Criciuma
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5.4	4.2 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
23:12 +9’	2.25	3.10	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ceara 4–2–0 Criciuma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Criciuma	1-1 HT 1-0	Ceara
02/09/23 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	1-0 HT 1-0	Criciuma
21/05/23 Brazil Serie B	Criciuma	1-2 HT 1-2	Ceara
18/11/17 Brazil Serie B	Criciuma	1-1 HT 0-0	Ceara
02/08/17 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	3-1 HT 3-0	Criciuma
08/11/16 Brazil Serie B	Criciuma	2-3 HT 1-2	Ceara

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	31	16	8	7	35	19	56
2	Vila Nova	30	16	6	8	43	31	54
3	Gremio Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52	27	54
4	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33	27	53
5	Fortaleza	30	14	10	6	35	26	52
6	Atletico GO	30	13	10	7	37	27	49
7	CRB	31	14	6	11	46	44	48
8	Operario PR	31	13	9	9	43	41	48
9	Sport Recife	31	12	11	8	42	33	47
10	Sao Bernardo SP	31	12	9	10	43	32	45
11	Cuiaba	30	10	13	7	30	25	43
12	Goias	31	12	6	13	30	39	42
13	Athletic Club MG	31	10	12	9	37	35	42
14	Nautico	30	11	8	11	38	37	41
15	Ceara	30	9	9	12	33	39	36
16	Botafogo SP	30	9	8	13	34	36	35
17	Avai	30	8	6	16	30	41	30
18	Londrina	31	7	7	17	39	45	28
19	America MG	30	4	5	21	21	50	17
20	Ponte Preta	30	3	4	23	17	64	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ceara	Criciuma
Operario PR	2-2 D	0-2 L
Fortaleza	1-1 D	0-2 L
Atletico GO	1-2 L	0-4 L
Londrina	2-1 W	2-0 W
Cuiaba	1-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ceara (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ceara

WLLWLWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
19/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	2	8	W
13/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
10/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	7	5	L
05/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	9	2	W
30/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
22/08	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
19/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
15/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
08/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	6	W

Criciuma

WDLLWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
27/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	3-0	5	7	W
23/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	17	5	L
13/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-4	5	6	L
09/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	10	7	L
05/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
30/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
23/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
20/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
15/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	9	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ceara vs Criciuma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ceara win (41%). Probabilities: Ceara 41%, draw 30%, Criciuma 29%.

How many goals are expected in Ceara vs Criciuma?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Ceara 1.32 · Criciuma 1.07), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Ceara vs Criciuma?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.