Football · Brazil Serie B · 08/10, 00:30

Prediction: Avai vs Londrina

Team pages: Avai · Londrina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Avai1.47

Londrina1.01

1X2

46% 29% 25%

Avai Draw Londrina

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Avai 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLLDLL

Londrina 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLWWLL

Head-to-head

Avai 2–3–1 Londrina (6 last)

Londrina3-2Avai
Londrina1-1Avai
Avai0-0Londrina
Avai2-0Londrina
Londrina1-3Avai
Avai1-1Londrina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avai 1448 · Londrina 1447

	Avai	Draw	Londrina
Our model	46%	29%	25%
Market	46%	29%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Avai: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avai	Londrina
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	2.2 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.20

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
23:12 +7’	2.00	3.20	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Avai 2–3–1 Londrina

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Londrina	3-2 HT 1-1	Avai
15/10/23 Brazil Serie B	Londrina	1-1 HT 1-0	Avai
24/06/23 Brazil Serie B	Avai	0-0 HT 0-0	Londrina
28/09/21 Brazil Serie B	Avai	2-0 HT 0-0	Londrina
01/07/21 Brazil Serie B	Londrina	1-3 HT 0-2	Avai
03/11/18 Brazil Serie B	Avai	1-1 HT 1-1	Londrina

Standings · Brazil Serie B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	31	16	8	7	35	19	56
2	Vila Nova	30	16	6	8	43	31	54
3	Gremio Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52	27	54
4	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33	27	53
5	Fortaleza	30	14	10	6	35	26	52
6	Atletico GO	30	13	10	7	37	27	49
7	CRB	31	14	6	11	46	44	48
8	Operario PR	31	13	9	9	43	41	48
9	Sport Recife	31	12	11	8	42	33	47
10	Sao Bernardo SP	31	12	9	10	43	32	45
11	Cuiaba	30	10	13	7	30	25	43
12	Goias	31	12	6	13	30	39	42
13	Athletic Club MG	31	10	12	9	37	35	42
14	Nautico	30	11	8	11	38	37	41
15	Ceara	30	9	9	12	33	39	36
16	Botafogo SP	30	9	8	13	34	36	35
17	Avai	30	8	6	16	30	41	30
18	Londrina	31	7	7	17	39	45	28
19	America MG	30	4	5	21	21	50	17
20	Ponte Preta	30	3	4	23	17	64	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avai	Londrina
Goias	1-2 L	0-1 L
Vila Nova	1-1 D	0-2 L
Fortaleza	0-1 L	1-2 L
Atletico GO	0-1 L	0-0 D
Ponte Preta	2-0 W	6-0 W
Sport Recife	2-1 W	1-2 L
Operario PR	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Avai (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avai

LWWWLLLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-3	2	7	L
20/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	8	L
15/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
10/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
05/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-3	1-3	2	3	L
30/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
23/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
20/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
16/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	0	4	W
12/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	14	4	L

Londrina

LLDLDLWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
20/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
16/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-0	6-0	10	3	W
11/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
06/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	7	12	L
02/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
22/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
19/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
15/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
11/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	8	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avai vs Londrina?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Avai win (46%). Probabilities: Avai 46%, draw 29%, Londrina 25%.

How many goals are expected in Avai vs Londrina?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Avai 1.47 · Londrina 1.01), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Avai vs Londrina?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.