Football · Brazil Serie B · 09/10, 00:30

Prediction: Nautico vs Gremio Novorizontino

Team pages: Nautico · Gremio Novorizontino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Nautico1.32

Gremio Novorizontino1.3

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Nautico Draw Gremio Novorizontino

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nautico 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWWLDLWD

Gremio Novorizontino 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDLDW

Head-to-head

Nautico 1–1–1 Gremio Novorizontino (3 last)

Gremio Novorizontino2-2Nautico
Gremio Novorizontino6-0Nautico
Nautico3-1Gremio Novorizontino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nautico 1520 · Gremio Novorizontino 1560

	Nautico	Draw	Gremio Novorizontino
Our model	36%	29%	35%
Market	36%	29%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gremio Novorizontino (rating 1520 vs 1560).
High corners: 14.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nautico	Gremio Novorizontino
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.4	4 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.20

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.72 ★
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.31
2	3.10 → 2.63▼	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
23:18 +3’	2.20	3.25	3.10
11:21 +2’	2.55▲	3.20▼	2.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:41 +14’	2.88	3.37	2.43
06:22 +3’	2.81▼	3.37	2.49▲
08:33 +32’	2.79▼	3.39▲	2.50▲
14:44 +22’	2.79	3.37▼	2.50
20:06 +94’	2.72▼	3.37	2.56▲
22:09 +72’	2.63▼	3.34▼	2.66▲
00:05 +41’	2.59▼	3.31▼	2.73▲
02:53 +95’	2.72▲	3.31	2.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nautico 1–1–1 Gremio Novorizontino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	2-2 HT 0-1	Nautico
15/10/22 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	6-0 HT 2-0	Nautico
02/07/22 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	3-1 HT 3-0	Gremio Novorizontino

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	31	17	6	8	44	31	57
2	EC Juventude	31	16	8	7	35	19	56
3	Gremio Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52	27	54
4	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33	27	53
5	Fortaleza	31	14	11	6	36	27	53
6	Atletico GO	31	14	10	7	39	27	52
7	CRB	31	14	6	11	46	44	48
8	Operario PR	31	13	9	9	43	41	48
9	Sport Recife	31	12	11	8	42	33	47
10	Cuiaba	31	11	13	7	32	25	46
11	Sao Bernardo SP	31	12	9	10	43	32	45
12	Goias	31	12	6	13	30	39	42
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39	38	42
14	Athletic Club MG	31	10	12	9	37	35	42
15	Ceara	31	10	9	12	34	39	39
16	Botafogo SP	31	9	8	14	34	37	35
17	Avai	31	8	6	17	30	42	30
18	Londrina	31	7	7	17	39	45	28
19	America MG	31	4	5	22	21	52	17
20	Ponte Preta	31	3	4	24	17	66	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nautico	Gremio Novorizontino
Sport Recife	3-1 W	2-1 W
Cuiaba	0-3 L	1-1 D
America MG	1-2 L	3-0 W
Botafogo SP	1-0 W	3-1 W
Athletic Club MG	2-1 W	4-1 W
Sao Bernardo SP	1-1 D	0-0 D
Ceara	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gremio Novorizontino (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nautico

DWDWWLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
26/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	11	2	W
22/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
16/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
10/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	10	3	L
04/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
29/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
23/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
19/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	9	7	W
15/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	6	9	D

Gremio Novorizontino

DWWWWWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
26/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
19/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	9	8	L
13/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	10	3	D
10/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
05/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	3-1	3-1	8	3	W
29/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
25/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	4-1	5	3	W
21/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	13	5	W
16/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nautico vs Gremio Novorizontino?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nautico win (36%). Probabilities: Nautico 36%, draw 29%, Gremio Novorizontino 35%.

How many goals are expected in Nautico vs Gremio Novorizontino?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Nautico 1.32 · Gremio Novorizontino 1.3), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nautico vs Gremio Novorizontino?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.