Prediction: CD Vargas Torres vs Independiente Juniors
Expected goals: 1.69 (CD Vargas Torres 0.88 · Independiente Juniors 0.81). The model gives 35% home, 34% draw, 31% away. Under 2 goals (57%) and not both to score (55%). Most likely score: 0-0.
Recent form leaves CD Vargas Torres with 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses over 10 games; Independiente Juniors has piled up 4-5-1 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 0 wins for CD Vargas Torres and 2 for Independiente Juniors, with 4 draws.
| CD Vargas Torres | Draw | Independiente Juniors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 37% | 30% |
| Market | 36% | 31% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Juniors (rating 1498 vs 1548).
- H2H favours Independiente Juniors: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Vargas Torres | Independiente Juniors | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 1.3 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/44/22% | 44/33/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4 | 1.7 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.6 | 4.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Vargas Torres 0–4–2 Independiente Juniors
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Independiente Juniors | 2-1 HT 1-1 | CD Vargas Torres |
| 10/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | CD Vargas Torres | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Juniors |
| 28/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Independiente Juniors | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CD Vargas Torres |
| 11/10/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Independiente Juniors | 2-0 HT 2-0 | CD Vargas Torres |
| 23/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | CD Vargas Torres | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Juniors |
| 03/07/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | CD Vargas Torres | 1-1 | Independiente Juniors |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club 9 de Octubre | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | Independiente Juniors | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 24 |
| 3 | Atletico FC Guayaquil | 14 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 23 |
| 4 | Vinotinto Ecuador | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 13 | 20 |
| 5 | CD Cuenca Jrs | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 20 |
| 6 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | LDU Portoviejo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 18 |
| 8 | Gualaceo SC | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 17 |
| 9 | CD Vargas Torres | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 15 |
| 10 | Cumbaya | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 15 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 6 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CD Vargas Torres | Independiente Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| 22 de Julio | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Gualaceo SC | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Cumbaya | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Atletico FC Guayaquil | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Club 9 de Octubre | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| LDU Portoviejo | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| CD Cuenca Jrs | 0-0 D | 4-0 W |
| San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 2 L | 3 W 4 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Vargas Torres
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 06/06 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 15/05 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 05/05 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 16/04 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
Independiente Juniors
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/06 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/05 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 07/05 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 30/04 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 22/04 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 19/04 | Africando SC Ecuador Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Vargas Torres vs Independiente Juniors?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Vargas Torres win (35%). Probabilities: CD Vargas Torres 35%, draw 34%, Independiente Juniors 31%.
How many goals are expected in CD Vargas Torres vs Independiente Juniors?
The model expects 1.69 goals (CD Vargas Torres 0.88 · Independiente Juniors 0.81), with a 57% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Vargas Torres vs Independiente Juniors?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.