Prediction: El Nacional vs Cumbaya
Expected goals: 2.25 (El Nacional 1.01 · Cumbaya 1.24). The model gives 29% home, 30% draw, 41% away. Under 2.25 goals (52%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, El Nacional sits at 0-2-8 (W-D-L), while Cumbaya arrives on a 4-3-3 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for El Nacional and 3 for Cumbaya, with 2 draws.
| El Nacional | Draw | Cumbaya | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 31% | 40% |
| Market | 30% | 29% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cumbaya (rating 1393 vs 1518).
- H2H favours Cumbaya: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| El Nacional | Cumbaya | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 2.1 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.3 | 0.8 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 56/22/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.5 | 1.8 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.4 | 5.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · El Nacional 1–2–3 Cumbaya
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Cumbaya | 2-1 HT 2-0 | El Nacional |
| 15/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | El Nacional | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Cumbaya |
| 31/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Cumbaya | 1-0 HT 0-0 | El Nacional |
| 26/08/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | El Nacional | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Cumbaya |
| 02/04/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Cumbaya | 2-0 HT 2-0 | El Nacional |
| 25/08/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Cumbaya | 0-0 HT 0-0 | El Nacional |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club 9 de Octubre | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 29 |
| 2 | Atletico FC Guayaquil | 15 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | Independiente Juniors | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | CD Cuenca Jrs | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 18 | 23 |
| 5 | Vinotinto Ecuador | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 13 | 20 |
| 6 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 19 |
| 7 | LDU Portoviejo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 19 |
| 8 | Cumbaya | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 18 |
| 9 | CD Vargas Torres | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 18 |
| 10 | Gualaceo SC | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 17 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 6 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | El Nacional | Cumbaya |
|---|---|---|
| CD Vargas Torres | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| CD Cuenca Jrs | 1-4 L | 3-0 W |
| LDU Portoviejo | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Club 9 de Octubre | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| 22 de Julio | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Gualaceo SC | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Vinotinto Ecuador | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 6 L | 2 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Cumbaya (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
El Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 11/06 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 07/06 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/04 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
Cumbaya
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/06 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 04/06 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 13/05 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 07/05 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 29/04 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in El Nacional vs Cumbaya?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cumbaya win (41%). Probabilities: El Nacional 29%, draw 30%, Cumbaya 41%.
How many goals are expected in El Nacional vs Cumbaya?
The model expects 2.25 goals (El Nacional 1.01 · Cumbaya 1.24), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in El Nacional vs Cumbaya?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.