Prediction: Independiente Juniors vs Atletico FC Guayaquil

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2Total
Independiente Juniors1.29
Atletico FC Guayaquil0.71
1X2
50% 30% 20%
Independiente Juniors Draw Atletico FC Guayaquil
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 61% Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Juniors 3-5-2 (W-D-L)
WDDWDLDWLD
Atletico FC Guayaquil 3-6-1 (W-D-L)
DDDDDWLDWW
Head-to-head
Independiente Juniors 0–1–0 Atletico FC Guayaquil (1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Juniors 1514 · Atletico FC Guayaquil 1524
Independiente JuniorsDrawAtletico FC Guayaquil
Our model49%32%19%
Market51%28%21%
Estimated total (ours) 2 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Independiente JuniorsAtletico FC Guayaquil
Goals for / against (FT)1.1 / 0.71 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)0.8 / 0.60.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)33/33/33%22/44/33%
Corners (HT / FT)1.9 / 3.21.8 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.8 / 0.32.9 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Juniors 010 Atletico FC Guayaquil

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DateHomeScoreAway
22/04/26
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
Atletico FC Guayaquil1-1
HT 0-0
Independiente Juniors

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Club 9 de Octubre 15852 191129
2 Atletico FC Guayaquil 15681 171226
3 CD Cuenca Jrs 16754 181826
4 Independiente Juniors 15663 171124
5 Cumbaya 16565 191621
6 Vinotinto Ecuador 15555 201320
7 San Antonio FC Cotacachi 15474 181519
8 LDU Portoviejo 16547 142019
9 CD Vargas Torres 15564 121018
10 Gualaceo SC 15654 131017
11 22 de Julio 15339 8216
12 El Nacional 160412 9271

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentIndependiente JuniorsAtletico FC Guayaquil
CD Vargas Torres 0-1 L 1-1 D
CD Cuenca Jrs 4-0 W 0-0 D
San Antonio FC Cotacachi 0-0 D 1-1 D
Club 9 de Octubre 0-0 D 0-0 D
22 de Julio 1-0 W 1-0 W
Gualaceo SC 1-1 D 2-1 W
Vinotinto Ecuador 2-2 D 0-3 L
LDU Portoviejo 2-1 W 1-1 D
Record vs common 3 W 4 D 1 L 2 W 5 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Juniors (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente Juniors

WDDWDLDWLD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
09/07 LDU Quito
Ecuador Cup
1-1 1-1 24 D
03/07 CD Vargas Torres
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
0-1 0-1 34 L
10/06 CD Cuenca Jrs
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
3-0 4-0 45 W
05/06 San Antonio FC Cotacachi
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
0-0 0-0 23 D
30/05 Cumbaya
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
0-1 0-1 33 L
25/05 Club 9 de Octubre
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
0-0 0-0 65 D
16/05 22 de Julio
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
1-0 W
07/05 Gualaceo SC
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
0-1 1-1 57 D
03/05 Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
2-1 2-2 18 D
30/04 LDU Portoviejo
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
1-0 2-1 37 W

Atletico FC Guayaquil

DDDDDWLDWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
02/07 El Nacional
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
2-0 3-0 92 W
09/06 22 de Julio
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
1-0 W
03/06 Club 9 de Octubre
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
0-0 0-0 24 D
31/05 Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
0-2 0-3 62 L
22/05 Gualaceo SC
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
2-1 2-1 23 W
15/05 CD Vargas Torres
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
0-1 1-1 12 D
08/05 LDU Portoviejo
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
0-1 1-1 06 D
03/05 CD Cuenca Jrs
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
0-0 0-0 33 D
29/04 San Antonio FC Cotacachi
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
1-1 1-1 64 D
22/04 Independiente Juniors
Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
0-0 1-1 00 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Juniors vs Atletico FC Guayaquil?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Juniors win (50%). Probabilities: Independiente Juniors 50%, draw 30%, Atletico FC Guayaquil 20%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Juniors vs Atletico FC Guayaquil?

The model expects 2 goals (Independiente Juniors 1.29 · Atletico FC Guayaquil 0.71), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Juniors vs Atletico FC Guayaquil?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.