Football · Brazil Serie B · 02/10, 01:30

Prediction: Athletic Club MG vs Sport Recife

Team pages: Athletic Club MG · Sport Recife

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Athletic Club MG1.66

Sport Recife1.11

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Athletic Club MG Draw Sport Recife

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Club MG 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLLLWLWD

Sport Recife 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWLWL

Head-to-head

Athletic Club MG 1–1–0 Sport Recife (2 last)

Sport Recife1-1Athletic Club MG
Sport Recife1-3Athletic Club MG

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Club MG	Sport Recife
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.6	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.91

Under 2.251.91

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:06

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.96 → 2.99▲	Pinn 2.99
X	3.18 → 3.21▲	Pinn 3.21
2	2.42 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.45

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:00 +6’	2.96	3.18	2.42
00:44 +22’	2.99▲	3.21▲	2.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Club MG 1–1–0 Sport Recife

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Sport Recife	1-1 HT 0-0	Athletic Club MG
18/03/26 Copa do Brasil	Sport Recife	1-3 HT 0-1	Athletic Club MG

Standings · Brazil Serie B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	30	16	6	8	43	31	54
2	Gremio Novorizontino	30	14	9	7	49	27	51
3	Fortaleza	29	14	9	6	33	24	51
4	EC Juventude	29	14	8	7	31	19	50
5	Criciuma	30	14	8	8	31	27	50
6	Atletico GO	30	13	10	7	37	27	49
7	Operario PR	30	13	9	8	43	38	48
8	CRB	29	13	6	10	42	41	45
9	Sport Recife	30	11	11	8	40	32	44
10	Cuiaba	29	10	13	6	30	22	43
11	Goias	30	12	6	12	30	36	42
12	Sao Bernardo SP	30	11	9	10	40	31	42
13	Nautico	30	11	8	11	38	37	41
14	Athletic Club MG	29	10	11	8	34	31	41
15	Ceara	30	9	9	12	33	39	36
16	Botafogo SP	29	8	8	13	32	36	32
17	Avai	30	8	6	16	30	41	30
18	Londrina	30	7	7	16	39	43	28
19	America MG	29	4	5	20	21	49	17
20	Ponte Preta	29	3	4	22	17	62	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Club MG	Sport Recife
EC Juventude	2-0 W	2-1 W
Vila Nova	5-0 W	1-0 W
Nautico	1-2 L	1-3 L
Gremio Novorizontino	1-4 L	1-2 L
CRB	0-2 L	1-2 L
America MG	3-1 W	3-0 W
Ponte Preta	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sport Recife (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Club MG

DWWLLLWLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
13/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
09/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
05/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	3-0	5-0	2	5	W
29/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
25/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-4	9	3	L
21/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
16/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
09/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
29/07	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	1	9	D

Sport Recife

WWLWLLWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	9	2	L
19/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
16/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
11/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
05/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	9	2	L
29/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
25/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	5	0	W
20/08	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
15/08	Londrina Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-1	1	2	W
08/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Club MG vs Sport Recife?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletic Club MG win (49%). Probabilities: Athletic Club MG 49%, draw 27%, Sport Recife 24%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Club MG vs Sport Recife?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Athletic Club MG 1.66 · Sport Recife 1.11), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Club MG vs Sport Recife?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.