Football · Brazil Serie B · 03/10, 02:35

Prediction: Fortaleza vs Nautico

Team pages: Fortaleza · Nautico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Fortaleza1.59

Nautico0.73

1X2

57% 27% 16%

Fortaleza Draw Nautico

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Fortaleza 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDDDWDWWDW

Nautico 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWLDLW

Head-to-head

Fortaleza 5–1–0 Nautico (6 last)

Nautico0-1Fortaleza
Fortaleza2-1Nautico
Fortaleza2-0Nautico
Nautico2-2Fortaleza
Nautico0-3Fortaleza
Nautico1-3Fortaleza

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortaleza (rating 1580 vs 1505).
H2H favours Fortaleza: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fortaleza	Nautico
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.5	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.1	2.8 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.96

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:07

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.78 → 1.79▲	Pinn 1.79
X	3.43 → 3.47▲	Pinn 3.47
2	4.62 → 4.69▲	Pinn 4.69

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
23:43 +25’	1.78	3.43	4.62
00:46 +21’	1.79▲	3.47▲	4.69▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortaleza 5–1–0 Nautico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	0-1 HT 0-1	Fortaleza
26/02/23 Brazil Copa Nordeste	Fortaleza	2-1 HT 2-0	Nautico
26/03/22 Brazil Copa Nordeste	Fortaleza	2-0 HT 1-0	Nautico
12/02/22 Brazil Copa Nordeste	Nautico	2-2 HT 1-1	Fortaleza
14/03/20 Brazil Copa Nordeste	Nautico	0-3 HT 0-1	Fortaleza
16/01/19 Brazil Copa Nordeste	Nautico	1-3 HT 0-1	Fortaleza

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	30	16	6	8	43	31	54
2	Gremio Novorizontino	30	14	9	7	49	27	51
3	Fortaleza	29	14	9	6	33	24	51
4	EC Juventude	29	14	8	7	31	19	50
5	Criciuma	30	14	8	8	31	27	50
6	Atletico GO	30	13	10	7	37	27	49
7	Operario PR	30	13	9	8	43	38	48
8	CRB	29	13	6	10	42	41	45
9	Sport Recife	30	11	11	8	40	32	44
10	Cuiaba	29	10	13	6	30	22	43
11	Goias	30	12	6	12	30	36	42
12	Sao Bernardo SP	30	11	9	10	40	31	42
13	Nautico	30	11	8	11	38	37	41
14	Athletic Club MG	29	10	11	8	34	31	41
15	Ceara	30	9	9	12	33	39	36
16	Botafogo SP	29	8	8	13	32	36	32
17	Avai	30	8	6	16	30	41	30
18	Londrina	30	7	7	16	39	43	28
19	America MG	29	4	5	20	21	49	17
20	Ponte Preta	29	3	4	22	17	62	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fortaleza	Nautico
Ceara	1-1 D	1-0 W
Operario PR	1-1 D	3-3 D
Sao Bernardo SP	1-1 D	1-1 D
Cuiaba	1-1 D	0-3 L
Botafogo SP	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fortaleza

WDDDWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
13/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
10/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
05/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
01/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	11	2	D
23/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
20/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
15/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
09/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
29/07	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	10	3	W

Nautico

DDWDWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	11	2	W
22/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
16/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
10/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	10	3	L
04/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
29/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
23/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
19/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	9	7	W
15/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	6	9	D
09/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fortaleza vs Nautico?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fortaleza win (57%). Probabilities: Fortaleza 57%, draw 27%, Nautico 16%.

How many goals are expected in Fortaleza vs Nautico?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Fortaleza 1.59 · Nautico 0.73), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fortaleza vs Nautico?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.