Football · USA MLS · 07/11, 22:00

Prediction: Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution

Team pages: Orlando City SC · New England Revolution

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.22Total

Orlando City SC2.54

New England Revolution1.68

1X2

55% 21% 24%

Orlando City SC Draw New England Revolution

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Orlando City SC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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New England Revolution 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Orlando City SC 4–1–1 New England Revolution (6 last)

New England Revolution4-2Orlando City SC
New England Revolution3-4Orlando City SC
New England Revolution1-2Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC3-3New England Revolution
Orlando City SC3-0New England Revolution
New England Revolution1-3Orlando City SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orlando City SC 1512 · New England Revolution 1539

	Orlando City SC	Draw	New England Revolution
Our model	56%	20%	24%
Market	55%	22%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 4.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Orlando City SC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orlando City SC	New England Revolution
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2.4	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	70/0/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.7	2.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.20

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:10 +10’	1.70	4.20	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orlando City SC 4–1–1 New England Revolution

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/09/26 USA MLS	New England Revolution	4-2 HT 1-0	Orlando City SC
30/04/26 USA US Open Cup	New England Revolution	3-4 HT 2-2	Orlando City SC
20/07/25 USA MLS	New England Revolution	1-2 HT 0-1	Orlando City SC
11/05/25 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	3-3 HT 2-2	New England Revolution
15/09/24 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	3-0 HT 2-0	New England Revolution
14/07/24 USA MLS	New England Revolution	1-3 HT 1-0	Orlando City SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	32	21	8	3	66	23	71
2	New England Revolution	32	18	4	10	54	44	58
3	Inter Miami CF	32	15	11	6	75	55	56
4	Chicago Fire	33	16	7	10	61	50	55
5	Charlotte FC	33	15	8	10	63	48	53
6	Philadelphia Union	33	13	8	12	62	51	47
7	FC Cincinnati	33	12	10	11	67	73	46
8	Columbus Crew	33	13	5	15	55	49	44
9	Orlando City SC	33	12	7	14	62	78	43
10	New York Red Bulls	32	11	6	15	43	59	39
11	New York City FC	33	9	12	12	48	45	39
12	Toronto FC	32	9	12	11	50	60	39
13	DC United	33	7	12	14	39	60	33
14	Atlanta United	32	8	6	18	40	56	30
15	CF Montreal	33	6	8	19	37	67	26

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orlando City SC	New England Revolution
Chicago Fire	2-2 D	1-0 W
New York City FC	2-2 D	2-1 W
Philadelphia Union	2-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: New England Revolution (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orlando City SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
29/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
25/10	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
18/10	DC United USA MLS	2-1	4-1	1	4	W
15/10	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	3-3	5	4	D
11/10	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
27/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-2	2-4	7	6	L
20/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	2-4	3	4	L
13/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
10/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-1	3-2	5	3	W

New England Revolution

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	3-2	2	5	W
25/10	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
18/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	1-0	0	2	W
15/10	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-1	3-2	5	4	W
11/10	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-1	0-3	8	3	L
27/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	0-3	11	4	L
20/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	4-2	10	4	W
13/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	4	W
10/09	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
06/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-2	1-2	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orlando City SC win (55%). Probabilities: Orlando City SC 55%, draw 21%, New England Revolution 24%.

How many goals are expected in Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution?

The model expects 4.22 goals (Orlando City SC 2.54 · New England Revolution 1.68), with a 56% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.