Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn vs Harju JK Laagri

Team pages: FC Levadia Tallinn · Harju JK Laagri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

FC Levadia Tallinn2.7

Harju JK Laagri0.85

1X2

76% 15% 9%

FC Levadia Tallinn Draw Harju JK Laagri

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Levadia Tallinn 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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Harju JK Laagri 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn 5–1–0 Harju JK Laagri (6 last)

Harju JK Laagri1-2FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn3-0Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri1-3FC Levadia Tallinn
Harju JK Laagri2-2FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn3-0Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri0-1FC Levadia Tallinn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Levadia Tallinn 1657 · Harju JK Laagri 1538

	FC Levadia Tallinn	Draw	Harju JK Laagri
Our model	76%	16%	9%
Market	77%	14%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn (rating 1657 vs 1538).
H2H favours FC Levadia Tallinn: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Levadia Tallinn	Harju JK Laagri
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 0.4	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	2.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.18

X6.50

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +9’	1.18	6.50	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Levadia Tallinn 5–1–0 Harju JK Laagri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
09/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	3-0 HT 2-0	Harju JK Laagri
15/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	1-3 HT 1-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
08/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	2-2 HT 0-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
19/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	3-0 HT 2-0	Harju JK Laagri
31/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Levadia Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	25	6	1	87	22	81
2	FC Flora Tallinn	32	19	1	12	62	44	58
3	Paide Linnameeskond	32	17	6	9	52	39	57
4	JK Nomme Kalju	32	15	6	11	54	33	51
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	32	15	2	15	42	51	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	32	14	2	16	45	47	44
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	32	10	6	16	43	63	36
8	FC Kuressaare	32	10	5	17	34	51	35
9	JK Nomme United	32	10	1	21	50	74	31
10	JK Trans Narva	32	5	5	22	25	70	20

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Levadia Tallinn	Harju JK Laagri
FC Kuressaare	2-0 W	0-0 D
Paide Linnameeskond	1-0 W	2-1 W
JK Tammeka Tartu	6-0 W	0-2 L
Parnu JK Vaprus	4-0 W	2-0 W
JK Nomme Kalju	3-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Levadia Tallinn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	4	0	W
15/10	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
11/10	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
20/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	11	4	D
17/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	6-0	9	4	W
12/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	4-0	8	4	W
09/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	4-0	3	2	W
06/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
30/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	3-2	10	6	W
21/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	4-0	5	2	W

Harju JK Laagri

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
13/10	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
10/10	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
18/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
13/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	3	11	W
09/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
06/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
29/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
16/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Levadia Tallinn vs Harju JK Laagri?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Levadia Tallinn win (76%). Probabilities: FC Levadia Tallinn 76%, draw 15%, Harju JK Laagri 9%.

How many goals are expected in FC Levadia Tallinn vs Harju JK Laagri?

The model expects 3.56 goals (FC Levadia Tallinn 2.7 · Harju JK Laagri 0.85), with a 55% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn vs Harju JK Laagri?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.