Football · Brazil Serie B · 03/10, 23:30

Prediction: Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova

Team pages: Botafogo SP · Vila Nova

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.08Total

Botafogo SP1.14

Vila Nova0.95

1X2

39% 32% 29%

Botafogo SP Draw Vila Nova

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo SP 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLLLDW

Vila Nova 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLWDWW

Head-to-head

Botafogo SP 2–1–3 Vila Nova (6 last)

Vila Nova1-0Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP2-0Vila Nova
Vila Nova2-0Botafogo SP
Vila Nova1-1Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP1-0Vila Nova
Vila Nova3-1Botafogo SP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo SP 1458 · Vila Nova 1548

	Botafogo SP	Draw	Vila Nova
Our model	39%	33%	29%
Market	39%	31%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vila Nova (rating 1458 vs 1548).
H2H favours Vila Nova: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo SP	Vila Nova
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	3.5 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.00

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.44 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.03
2	3.00 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:40 +11’	2.40	3.00	3.00
02:29 +4’	2.40	3.00	3.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:41 +39’	2.48	2.98	3.07
01:45 +42’	2.50▲	3.01▲	3.10▲
02:31 +61’	2.44▼	3.03▲	3.17▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo SP 2–1–3 Vila Nova

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	1-0 HT 1-0	Botafogo SP
26/08/25 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	2-0 HT 0-0	Vila Nova
20/04/25 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	2-0 HT 2-0	Botafogo SP
28/09/24 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	1-1 HT 1-0	Botafogo SP
16/06/24 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	1-0 HT 1-0	Vila Nova
12/10/23 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	3-1 HT 2-0	Botafogo SP

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	30	16	6	8	43	31	54
2	EC Juventude	30	15	8	7	32	19	53
3	Fortaleza	30	14	10	6	35	26	52
4	Gremio Novorizontino	30	14	9	7	49	27	51
5	Criciuma	30	14	8	8	31	27	50
6	Atletico GO	30	13	10	7	37	27	49
7	CRB	30	14	6	10	45	41	48
8	Operario PR	30	13	9	8	43	38	48
9	Sport Recife	30	11	11	8	40	32	44
10	Cuiaba	30	10	13	7	30	25	43
11	Goias	30	12	6	12	30	36	42
12	Sao Bernardo SP	30	11	9	10	40	31	42
13	Athletic Club MG	30	10	12	8	36	33	42
14	Nautico	30	11	8	11	38	37	41
15	Ceara	30	9	9	12	33	39	36
16	Botafogo SP	30	9	8	13	34	36	35
17	Avai	30	8	6	16	30	41	30
18	Londrina	30	7	7	16	39	43	28
19	America MG	30	4	5	21	21	50	17
20	Ponte Preta	30	3	4	23	17	64	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo SP	Vila Nova
Ponte Preta	2-0 W	6-0 W
Athletic Club MG	1-1 D	0-5 L
Goias	1-3 L	2-0 W
Atletico GO	0-3 L	2-0 W
America MG	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vila Nova (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo SP

WWDLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
19/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
15/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-3	6	7	L
10/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-3	8	6	L
04/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
29/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
26/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
20/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
15/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	11	3	W
08/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	4	3	W

Vila Nova

LWWDWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
19/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
15/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
11/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
05/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-5	2	5	L
30/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
23/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
20/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-0	6-0	9	3	W
15/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
08/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	15	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo SP win (39%). Probabilities: Botafogo SP 39%, draw 32%, Vila Nova 29%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?

The model expects 2.08 goals (Botafogo SP 1.14 · Vila Nova 0.95), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.