Football · USA MLS · 07/11, 22:00

Prediction: Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC

Team pages: Philadelphia Union · Toronto FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.03Total

Philadelphia Union2.73

Toronto FC1.3

1X2

67% 18% 15%

Philadelphia Union Draw Toronto FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Philadelphia Union 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDLDL

Toronto FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWDWLW

Head-to-head

Philadelphia Union 1–3–2 Toronto FC (6 last)

Toronto FC3-3Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union1-1Toronto FC
Toronto FC1-2Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC2-1Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union0-0Toronto FC
Toronto FC3-1Philadelphia Union

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Philadelphia Union 1550 · Toronto FC 1501

	Philadelphia Union	Draw	Toronto FC
Our model	67%	18%	15%
Market	66%	19%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Philadelphia Union (rating 1550 vs 1501).
H2H favours Toronto FC: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Philadelphia Union	Toronto FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.2	1.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 6.4	1.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X5.00

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Pinn 1.45 ★
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.13
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:10 +10’	1.40	5.00	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:43 +36’	1.44	5.04	5.74
23:52 +25’	1.45▲	5.13▲	5.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Union 1–3–2 Toronto FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 USA MLS	Toronto FC	3-3 HT 0-1	Philadelphia Union
10/08/25 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	1-1 HT 1-0	Toronto FC
29/05/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Philadelphia Union
14/07/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Philadelphia Union
30/05/24 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	0-0 HT 0-0	Toronto FC
31/08/23 USA MLS	Toronto FC	3-1 HT 1-1	Philadelphia Union

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	32	21	8	3	66	23	71
2	New England Revolution	32	18	4	10	54	44	58
3	Inter Miami CF	32	15	11	6	75	55	56
4	Chicago Fire	33	16	7	10	61	50	55
5	Charlotte FC	33	15	8	10	63	48	53
6	Philadelphia Union	33	13	8	12	62	51	47
7	FC Cincinnati	33	12	10	11	67	73	46
8	Columbus Crew	33	13	5	15	55	49	44
9	Orlando City SC	33	12	7	14	62	78	43
10	New York Red Bulls	32	11	6	15	43	59	39
11	New York City FC	33	9	12	12	48	45	39
12	Toronto FC	32	9	12	11	50	60	39
13	DC United	33	7	12	14	39	60	33
14	Atlanta United	32	8	6	18	40	56	30
15	CF Montreal	33	6	8	19	37	67	26

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Philadelphia Union	Toronto FC
Nashville SC	0-0 D	0-2 L
Chicago Fire	3-1 W	4-4 D
Orlando City SC	4-2 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Philadelphia Union (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Philadelphia Union

WWWWWWDLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-0	0-1	12	0	L
29/10	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
25/10	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
17/10	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-0	2-2	7	3	D
15/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	3-1	7	6	W
11/10	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
27/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	7	6	W
20/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-3	4-3	4	7	W
14/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	5-0	4	4	W
10/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-0	5-0	7	3	W

Toronto FC

DWLLLWDWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	DC United USA MLS	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
24/10	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-2	2-4	5	2	L
18/10	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
15/10	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-1	3-3	4	4	D
10/10	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
27/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	3	1	L
20/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
13/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
10/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
06/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Philadelphia Union win (67%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Union 67%, draw 18%, Toronto FC 15%.

How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC?

The model expects 4.03 goals (Philadelphia Union 2.73 · Toronto FC 1.3), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.