Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 25/10, 13:30

Prediction: JK Nomme Kalju vs FC Flora Tallinn

Team pages: JK Nomme Kalju · FC Flora Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

JK Nomme Kalju1.52

FC Flora Tallinn1.52

1X2

37% 26% 37%

JK Nomme Kalju Draw FC Flora Tallinn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme Kalju 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWWLDL

FC Flora Tallinn 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWLLWL

Head-to-head

JK Nomme Kalju 3–3 FC Flora Tallinn (6 last)

FC Flora Tallinn2-1JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju0-1FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn0-1JK Nomme Kalju
FC Flora Tallinn1-3JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju3-1FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn1-0JK Nomme Kalju

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme Kalju 1461 · FC Flora Tallinn 1499

	JK Nomme Kalju	Draw	FC Flora Tallinn
Our model	37%	26%	37%
Market	38%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme Kalju	FC Flora Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.9 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.7	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.60

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.42
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.66 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:17 +5’	2.40	3.60	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:24 +53’	2.42	3.46	2.66

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme Kalju 3–0–3 FC Flora Tallinn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	2-1 HT 2-1	JK Nomme Kalju
10/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Flora Tallinn
15/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	0-1 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju
28/02/26 Estonia Super Cup	FC Flora Tallinn	1-3 HT 1-2	JK Nomme Kalju
28/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	3-1 HT 1-1	FC Flora Tallinn
06/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	1-0 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	25	6	1	87	22	81
2	FC Flora Tallinn	33	19	1	13	63	47	58
3	Paide Linnameeskond	32	17	6	9	52	39	57
4	JK Nomme Kalju	32	15	6	11	54	33	51
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	32	15	2	15	42	51	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	33	15	2	16	48	48	47
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	32	10	6	16	43	63	36
8	FC Kuressaare	32	10	5	17	34	51	35
9	JK Nomme United	32	10	1	21	50	74	31
10	JK Trans Narva	32	5	5	22	25	70	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme Kalju	FC Flora Tallinn
JK Nomme United	0-3 L	3-2 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	2-2 D	3-2 W
Harju JK Laagri	0-1 L	1-3 L
JK Tammeka Tartu	3-1 W	2-0 W
JK Trans Narva	2-0 W	2-2 D
FC Levadia Tallinn	2-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: JK Nomme Kalju (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme Kalju

WLLLLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-3	6	6	L
13/10	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-2	0	4	D
10/10	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
20/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
12/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
08/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	5	7	L
05/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	8	1	L
30/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
22/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	5	W

FC Flora Tallinn

LWWDWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	1-3	10	2	L
18/10	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
15/10	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
11/10	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-2	3	6	L
20/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	3-2	7	0	W
12/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-2	9	1	W
08/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-2	2-2	4	6	D
05/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-1	2	1	W
02/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-2	3	6	W
30/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme Kalju vs FC Flora Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Nomme Kalju win (37%). Probabilities: JK Nomme Kalju 37%, draw 26%, FC Flora Tallinn 37%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme Kalju vs FC Flora Tallinn?

The model expects 3.03 goals (JK Nomme Kalju 1.52 · FC Flora Tallinn 1.52), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme Kalju vs FC Flora Tallinn?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.