Football · Latvia Virsliga · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: SC Grobinas vs Ogre United

Team pages: SC Grobinas · Ogre United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

SC Grobinas1.75

Ogre United1.11

1X2

51% 25% 23%

SC Grobinas Draw Ogre United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Grobinas 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Ogre United 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SC Grobinas 0–3–0 Ogre United (3 last)

SC Grobinas2-2Ogre United
Ogre United1-1SC Grobinas
Ogre United1-1SC Grobinas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Grobinas 1449 · Ogre United 1414

	SC Grobinas	Draw	Ogre United
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Grobinas	Ogre United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.1	1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	1.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.73▲	Pinn 1.81
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.65
2	4.20 → 3.80▼	Pinn 3.98 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:26 +58’	1.65	3.70	4.20
23:59 +8’	1.73▲	3.60▼	3.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +24’	1.81	3.65	3.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Grobinas 0–3–0 Ogre United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/07/26 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	2-2 HT 0-2	Ogre United
25/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	Ogre United	1-1 HT 1-1	SC Grobinas
13/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	Ogre United	1-1 HT 0-1	SC Grobinas

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	32	25	5	2	79	24	80
2	Riga FC	32	23	7	2	88	30	76
3	FK Auda	32	19	7	6	52	32	64
4	FK Liepaja	32	12	7	13	43	46	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	11	9	12	37	36	42
6	SK Super Nova	32	11	5	16	31	45	38
7	FK Jelgava	32	8	8	16	34	53	32
8	SC Grobinas	32	5	11	16	22	54	26
9	Tukums 2000	32	5	9	18	44	63	24
10	Ogre United	32	4	6	22	31	78	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Grobinas	Ogre United
SK Super Nova	1-2 L	1-0 W
Tukums 2000	1-1 D	1-2 L
FK Jelgava	0-0 D	2-3 L
FK Auda	0-1 L	0-1 L
BFC Daugavpils	1-0 W	1-2 L
FK Liepaja	1-3 L	2-2 D
RFS	1-6 L	0-3 L
Riga FC	0-4 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Ogre United (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Grobinas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
20/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
12/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
06/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
29/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
21/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
10/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-4	1-6	1	2	L
02/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-4	3	1	L
27/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-2	2-2	7	4	D
20/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	4	4	L

Ogre United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
20/09	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
16/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
11/09	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
05/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	7	9	L
30/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
22/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	2-1	2-3	3	5	L
09/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	1-4	1-4	2	8	L
27/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
19/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-4	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Grobinas vs Ogre United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Grobinas win (51%). Probabilities: SC Grobinas 51%, draw 25%, Ogre United 23%.

How many goals are expected in SC Grobinas vs Ogre United?

The model expects 2.87 goals (SC Grobinas 1.75 · Ogre United 1.11), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Grobinas vs Ogre United?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.