Football · Latvia Virsliga · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: Riga FC vs SK Super Nova

Team pages: Riga FC · SK Super Nova

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Riga FC2.53

SK Super Nova0.53

1X2

82% 13% 5%

Riga FC Draw SK Super Nova

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Riga FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDLDDWWW

SK Super Nova 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDDWWLLW

Head-to-head

Riga FC 6–0 SK Super Nova (6 last)

SK Super Nova0-1Riga FC
Riga FC3-0SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova1-4Riga FC
SK Super Nova2-6Riga FC
Riga FC2-0SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova1-5Riga FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Riga FC 1621 · SK Super Nova 1463

	Riga FC	Draw	SK Super Nova
Our model	80%	15%	5%
Market	83%	12%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Riga FC (rating 1621 vs 1463).
H2H favours Riga FC: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Riga FC	SK Super Nova
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 6.3	3.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.11

X8.00

217.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.98

2 (+2.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 17:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.11 → 1.14▲	Bet365 1.14
X	8.00 → 7.50▼	Bet365 7.50
2	17.00 → 15.00▼	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:41 +6’	1.11	8.00	17.00
02:19 +5’	1.09▼	9.00▲	19.00▲
22:28 +5’	1.13▲	8.00▼	15.00▼
17:11 +4’	1.14▲	7.50▼	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Riga FC 6–0–0 SK Super Nova

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
15/09/26 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	0-1 HT 0-0	Riga FC
24/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	3-0 HT 3-0	SK Super Nova
14/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-4 HT 1-3	Riga FC
30/08/25 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	2-6 HT 1-3	Riga FC
22/06/25 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	2-0 HT 1-0	SK Super Nova
01/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-5 HT 0-2	Riga FC

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	32	25	5	2	79	24	80
2	Riga FC	32	23	7	2	88	30	76
3	FK Auda	32	19	7	6	52	32	64
4	FK Liepaja	32	12	7	13	43	46	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	11	9	12	37	36	42
6	SK Super Nova	32	11	5	16	31	45	38
7	FK Jelgava	32	8	8	16	34	53	32
8	SC Grobinas	32	5	11	16	22	54	26
9	Tukums 2000	32	5	9	18	44	63	24
10	Ogre United	32	4	6	22	31	78	18

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Riga FC	SK Super Nova
Tukums 2000	2-0 W	1-0 W
FK Jelgava	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Auda	2-2 D	1-1 D
BFC Daugavpils	1-1 D	0-0 D
FK Liepaja	2-3 L	1-2 L
Ogre United	4-1 W	0-1 L
SC Grobinas	4-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Riga FC (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Riga FC

WWWDLDDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
19/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
15/09	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	11	8	W
11/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
07/09	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
31/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-2	2-3	9	5	L
23/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-3	3	4	D
09/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	4-1	4-1	5	8	W
02/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	4-0	7	1	W
18/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-1	3-1	8	3	W

SK Super Nova

LWLDDWWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
20/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
15/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	0	8	L
10/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
05/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
29/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
09/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
20/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
06/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-2	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Riga FC vs SK Super Nova?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Riga FC win (82%). Probabilities: Riga FC 82%, draw 13%, SK Super Nova 5%.

How many goals are expected in Riga FC vs SK Super Nova?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Riga FC 2.53 · SK Super Nova 0.53), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Riga FC vs SK Super Nova?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.