Football · Latvia Virsliga · 19/10, 17:00

Prediction: BFC Daugavpils vs FK Auda

Team pages: BFC Daugavpils · FK Auda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

BFC Daugavpils1.02

FK Auda1.41

1X2

27% 27% 46%

BFC Daugavpils Draw FK Auda

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

BFC Daugavpils 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDLDLDW

FK Auda 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWDWDW

Head-to-head

BFC Daugavpils 3–1–2 FK Auda (6 last)

BFC Daugavpils2-2FK Auda
FK Auda1-0BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils0-1FK Auda
FK Auda2-3BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils1-0FK Auda
FK Auda1-3BFC Daugavpils

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BFC Daugavpils 1526 · FK Auda 1574

	BFC Daugavpils	Draw	FK Auda
Our model	26%	29%	45%
Market	28%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Auda (rating 1526 vs 1574).
H2H favours BFC Daugavpils: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BFC Daugavpils	FK Auda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	1.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	2.6 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.50

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:47 +9’	3.20	3.50	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · BFC Daugavpils 3–1–2 FK Auda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/09/26 Latvia Cup	BFC Daugavpils	2-2 HT 2-0	FK Auda
26/07/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	1-0 HT 1-0	BFC Daugavpils
26/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Auda
12/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	2-3 HT 0-1	BFC Daugavpils
05/10/25 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Auda
20/07/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	1-3 HT 0-0	BFC Daugavpils

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	32	25	5	2	79	24	80
2	Riga FC	32	23	7	2	88	30	76
3	FK Auda	32	19	7	6	52	32	64
4	FK Liepaja	32	12	7	13	43	46	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	11	9	12	37	36	42
6	SK Super Nova	32	11	5	16	31	45	38
7	FK Jelgava	32	8	8	16	34	53	32
8	SC Grobinas	32	5	11	16	22	54	26
9	Tukums 2000	32	5	9	18	44	63	24
10	Ogre United	32	4	6	22	31	78	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BFC Daugavpils	FK Auda
Ogre United	2-1 W	1-0 W
FK Liepaja	0-0 D	3-2 W
RFS	1-2 L	1-1 D
Riga FC	1-1 D	2-2 D
SC Grobinas	0-1 L	1-0 W
SK Super Nova	0-0 D	1-1 D
Tukums 2000	2-0 W	3-0 W
FK Jelgava	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Auda (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BFC Daugavpils

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
19/09	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
13/09	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
07/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
29/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
22/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
01/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-1	10	5	W
26/07	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
19/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	4-0	2	3	W

FK Auda

WWWWDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	3-2	1	4	W
20/09	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-1	9	6	D
16/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
11/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-2	3	3	D
06/09	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
29/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
25/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
21/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
09/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	6	9	W
26/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BFC Daugavpils vs FK Auda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Auda win (46%). Probabilities: BFC Daugavpils 27%, draw 27%, FK Auda 46%.

How many goals are expected in BFC Daugavpils vs FK Auda?

The model expects 2.43 goals (BFC Daugavpils 1.02 · FK Auda 1.41), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in BFC Daugavpils vs FK Auda?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.