Football · Finland Kolmonen · 05/08, 18:45

Prediction: KUPS Akatemia II vs ToU

Team pages: KUPS Akatemia II · ToU

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.43Total

KUPS Akatemia II3.22

ToU1.22

1X2

81% 11% 8%

KUPS Akatemia II Draw ToU

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

KUPS Akatemia II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLDWLL

ToU 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLLLLL

Head-to-head

KUPS Akatemia II 0–1–1 ToU (2 last)

ToU3-1KUPS Akatemia II
KUPS Akatemia II2-2ToU

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KUPS Akatemia II 1458 · ToU 1411

	KUPS Akatemia II	Draw	ToU
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	85%	9%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 4.43 goals · Bet365 line 4.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KUPS Akatemia II (rating 1458 vs 1411).
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KUPS Akatemia II	ToU
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.7	0.7 / 3.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.4	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	17/33/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 3.8	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.08

X10.00

217.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.25)1.93

2 (+3.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.90

Under 4.751.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.08 → 1.08	Bet365 1.08
X	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:03 +3’	1.08	10.00	17.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KUPS Akatemia II 0–1–1 ToU

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	ToU	3-1	KUPS Akatemia II
15/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	KUPS Akatemia II	2-2 HT 0-1	ToU

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kings SC	14	13	0	1	53	17	39
2	NiemU	14	11	1	2	34	9	34
3	KUPS Akatemia II	14	5	2	7	32	33	17
4	Jippo II	14	4	4	6	24	26	16
5	Yllatys	14	4	3	7	26	32	15
6	PK-37	14	4	3	7	20	28	15
7	SC Zulimanit	14	4	2	8	16	28	14
8	ToU	14	3	1	10	13	45	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KUPS Akatemia II	ToU
Kings SC	2-7 L	0-8 L
PK-37	0-1 L	0-3 L
Jippo II	1-0 W	1-3 L
Yllatys	1-1 D	1-0 W
NiemU	0-3 L	1-3 L
SC Zulimanit	2-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: KUPS Akatemia II (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KUPS Akatemia II

LWWLLLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Kings SC Finland Kolmonen	0-5	2-7	6	3	L
24/07	PK-37 Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
15/07	Jippo II Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
25/06	Yllatys Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
16/06	NiemU Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
11/06	SC Zulimanit Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	5	1	L
05/06	ToU Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
27/05	Kings SC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	3	6	W
21/05	PK-37 Finland Kolmonen	–	5-3	0	0	W
13/05	Jippo II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L

ToU

LLLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	SC Zulimanit Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
24/07	NiemU Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
17/07	Kings SC Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-8	1	3	L
28/06	PK-37 Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
18/06	Jippo II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
11/06	Yllatys Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/06	KUPS Akatemia II Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
29/05	SC Zulimanit Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	14	3	L
23/05	NiemU Finland Kolmonen	–	0-6	–	–	L
15/05	Kings SC Finland Kolmonen	–	0-8	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KUPS Akatemia II vs ToU?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KUPS Akatemia II win (81%). Probabilities: KUPS Akatemia II 81%, draw 11%, ToU 8%.

How many goals are expected in KUPS Akatemia II vs ToU?

The model expects 4.43 goals (KUPS Akatemia II 3.22 · ToU 1.22), with a 55% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KUPS Akatemia II vs ToU?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.