Football · Finland Kolmonen · 14/08, 19:00

Prediction: Ponnistus vs FC Lahti II

Team pages: Ponnistus · FC Lahti II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

Ponnistus1.42

FC Lahti II2.24

1X2

23% 21% 55%

Ponnistus Draw FC Lahti II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Ponnistus 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLDLLW

FC Lahti II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ponnistus 0–1 FC Lahti II (1 last)

FC Lahti II2-1Ponnistus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ponnistus 1432 · FC Lahti II 1539

	Ponnistus	Draw	FC Lahti II
Our model	23%	22%	55%
Market	24%	21%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Lahti II (rating 1432 vs 1539).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ponnistus	FC Lahti II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 3.2	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/17/50%	57/14/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	3.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.5	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.33

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.88

Under 3.51.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:02 +3’	3.80	4.33	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ponnistus 0–0–1 FC Lahti II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	FC Lahti II	2-1 HT 1-0	Ponnistus

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Futura	14	12	1	1	48	11	37
2	Sibbov	11	8	1	2	33	21	25
3	FC Lahti II	12	6	4	2	21	15	22
4	RiPS	13	7	1	5	27	24	22
5	JäPS/47	12	6	3	3	28	19	21
6	Atlantis II	13	5	3	5	27	25	18
7	TuPS	13	5	1	7	27	19	16
8	Gnistan/Ogeli	13	4	3	6	19	30	15
9	Ponnistus	13	3	2	8	18	36	11
10	ToTe/Tapio	13	1	3	9	16	39	6
11	TiPS U21	13	1	2	10	12	37	5

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ponnistus	FC Lahti II
TiPS U21	4-1 W	4-0 W
RiPS	0-1 L	2-3 L
Sibbov	0-2 L	2-2 D
TuPS	0-0 D	2-1 W
Gnistan/Ogeli	1-3 L	2-0 W
ToTe/Tapio	2-2 D	1-0 W
JäPS/47	1-4 L	3-3 D
FC Futura	1-12 L	1-4 L
Atlantis II	3-5 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 6 L	4 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Lahti II (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ponnistus

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-1	1	7	W
31/07	RiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
23/07	Sibbov Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
27/06	TuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
12/06	Gnistan/Ogeli Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
03/06	ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	2	4	D
31/05	JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
22/05	FC Futura Finland Kolmonen	–	1-12	–	–	L
15/05	Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen	–	3-5	–	–	L
06/05	FC Lahti II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	6	9	L

FC Lahti II

WLWWWLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D
01/08	Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	9	0	D
02/07	Gnistan/Ogeli Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
24/06	Sibbov Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	6	6	D
12/06	FC Futura Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
05/06	TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	7	2	W
29/05	TuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
24/05	ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/05	RiPS Finland Kolmonen	–	2-3	–	–	L
06/05	Ponnistus Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	3	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ponnistus vs FC Lahti II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Lahti II win (55%). Probabilities: Ponnistus 23%, draw 21%, FC Lahti II 55%.

How many goals are expected in Ponnistus vs FC Lahti II?

The model expects 3.66 goals (Ponnistus 1.42 · FC Lahti II 2.24), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ponnistus vs FC Lahti II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.