Football · Finland Kolmonen · 26/08, 18:45

Prediction: KUPS Akatemia II vs Yllatys

Team pages: KUPS Akatemia II · Yllatys

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.29Total

KUPS Akatemia II2.38

Yllatys1.91

1X2

49% 20% 31%

KUPS Akatemia II Draw Yllatys

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

KUPS Akatemia II 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Yllatys 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWDLDWWW

Head-to-head

KUPS Akatemia II 1–0 Yllatys (1 last)

KUPS Akatemia II8-0Yllatys

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KUPS Akatemia II 1481 · Yllatys 1520

	KUPS Akatemia II	Draw	Yllatys
Our model	48%	21%	31%
Market	49%	20%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 4.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KUPS Akatemia II	Yllatys
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 2.5	2.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.8	0 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.3	3.3 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X4.50

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +4’	1.85	4.50	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KUPS Akatemia II 1–0–0 Yllatys

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	KUPS Akatemia II	8-0 HT 4-0	Yllatys

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kings SC	17	14	0	3	62	25	42
2	NiemU	17	13	1	3	40	14	40
3	Jippo II	17	7	4	6	41	36	25
4	Yllatys	17	7	3	7	37	35	24
5	KUPS Akatemia II	17	6	2	9	35	42	20
6	PK-37	17	5	3	9	28	39	18
7	SC Zulimanit	17	5	2	10	23	36	17
8	ToU	17	3	1	13	17	56	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KUPS Akatemia II	Yllatys
NiemU	1-3 L	1-1 D
SC Zulimanit	2-3 L	5-1 W
ToU	1-3 L	3-0 W
Kings SC	3-2 W	3-2 W
PK-37	5-3 W	1-1 D
Jippo II	1-4 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Yllatys (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KUPS Akatemia II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	NiemU Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
16/06	NiemU Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
11/06	SC Zulimanit Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	5	1	L
05/06	ToU Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
27/05	Kings SC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	3	6	W
21/05	PK-37 Finland Kolmonen	–	5-3	0	0	W
13/05	Jippo II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
06/05	Yllatys Finland Kolmonen	4-0	8-0	9	2	W
29/04	NiemU Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
22/04	SC Zulimanit Finland Kolmonen	3-1	5-2	5	2	W

Yllatys

WLLWDLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	SC Zulimanit Finland Kolmonen	–	5-1	–	–	W
14/08	ToU Finland Kolmonen	0-0	3-0	9	2	W
08/08	Kings SC Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
01/08	PK-37 Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/07	Jippo II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
15/07	NiemU Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
17/06	SC Zulimanit Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
11/06	ToU Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
05/06	Kings SC Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
31/05	PK-37 Finland Kolmonen	–	6-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KUPS Akatemia II vs Yllatys?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KUPS Akatemia II win (49%). Probabilities: KUPS Akatemia II 49%, draw 20%, Yllatys 31%.

How many goals are expected in KUPS Akatemia II vs Yllatys?

The model expects 4.29 goals (KUPS Akatemia II 2.38 · Yllatys 1.91), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KUPS Akatemia II vs Yllatys?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.