Football · Finland Kolmonen · 05/08, 17:15

Prediction: TuPS vs Atlantis II

Team pages: TuPS · Atlantis II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

TuPS2.27

Atlantis II1.46

1X2

55% 21% 24%

TuPS Draw Atlantis II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

TuPS 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLDWLL

Atlantis II 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWDDDWLLLD

Head-to-head

TuPS 1–3 Atlantis II (4 last)

Atlantis II1-0TuPS
Atlantis II10-0TuPS
Atlantis II4-2TuPS
TuPS2-1Atlantis II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TuPS 1482 · Atlantis II 1508

	TuPS	Draw	Atlantis II
Our model	55%	22%	23%
Market	55%	21%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atlantis II: 3-0-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TuPS	Atlantis II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.6	2.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/22/44%	50/13/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.6	2.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.33

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:57 +8’	1.61	4.33	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TuPS 1–0–3 Atlantis II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	Atlantis II	1-0	TuPS
22/07/21 Finland Kolmonen	Atlantis II	10-0 HT 3-0	TuPS
29/08/19 Finland Kolmonen	Atlantis II	4-2 HT 2-0	TuPS
29/05/19 Finland Kolmonen	TuPS	2-1 HT 0-1	Atlantis II

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Futura	13	11	1	1	46	10	34
2	Sibbov	11	8	1	2	33	21	25
3	RiPS	12	7	1	4	26	22	22
4	FC Lahti II	11	6	3	2	18	12	21
5	JäPS/47	11	6	2	3	25	16	20
6	Atlantis II	12	5	3	4	25	18	18
7	TuPS	12	4	1	7	20	17	13
8	Gnistan/Ogeli	12	3	3	6	17	29	12
9	Ponnistus	12	2	2	8	14	35	8
10	ToTe/Tapio	12	1	3	8	15	37	6
11	TiPS U21	12	1	2	9	11	33	5

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TuPS	Atlantis II
FC Futura	0-1 L	0-1 L
ToTe/Tapio	1-3 L	6-1 W
TiPS U21	4-0 W	2-3 L
Ponnistus	0-0 D	5-3 W
Sibbov	3-6 L	2-1 W
MK United	5-1 W	2-2 D
FC Lahti II	1-2 L	1-1 D
Gnistan/Ogeli	5-0 W	1-1 D
JäPS/47	3-2 W	2-3 L
RiPS	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atlantis II (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TuPS

LWWLWLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	FC Futura Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
24/07	ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen	0-3	1-3	3	6	L
02/07	TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	3	1	W
27/06	Ponnistus Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
17/06	Sibbov Finland Kolmonen	1-3	3-6	7	3	L
05/06	MK United Finland Kolmonen	1-0	5-1	7	3	W
29/05	FC Lahti II Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
23/05	Gnistan/Ogeli Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-0	13	2	W
17/05	JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	3	1	W
09/05	RiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	14	7	L

Atlantis II

WWDDDWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	FC Lahti II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	6	0	D
23/07	TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-3	0	2	L
04/07	FC Futura Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
24/06	JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-3	2	7	L
12/06	ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen	1-0	6-1	4	3	W
07/06	Gnistan/Ogeli Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
28/05	RiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
22/05	MK United Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
15/05	Ponnistus Finland Kolmonen	–	5-3	–	–	W
09/05	Sibbov Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TuPS vs Atlantis II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TuPS win (55%). Probabilities: TuPS 55%, draw 21%, Atlantis II 24%.

How many goals are expected in TuPS vs Atlantis II?

The model expects 3.73 goals (TuPS 2.27 · Atlantis II 1.46), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in TuPS vs Atlantis II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.