Football · Finland Kolmonen · 28/08, 18:00

Prediction: ACE vs TPV II

Team pages: ACE · TPV II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.37Total

ACE1.31

TPV II3.07

1X2

13% 15% 72%

ACE Draw TPV II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

ACE 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWWLL

TPV II 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWLWWW

Head-to-head

ACE 1–1–4 TPV II (6 last)

TPV II2-1ACE
ACE1-2TPV II
TPV II5-3ACE
TPV II2-2ACE
ACE6-0TPV II
TPV II4-1ACE

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ACE 1424 · TPV II 1586

	ACE	Draw	TPV II
Our model	13%	15%	72%
Market	13%	15%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 4.37 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TPV II (rating 1424 vs 1586).
H2H favours TPV II: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ACE	TPV II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 3	3.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	1.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	67/22/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2.2	2.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

17.00

X6.00

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)2.00

2 (-1.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
02:23 +28’	7.00	6.00	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ACE 1–1–4 TPV II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	TPV II	2-1 HT 1-0	ACE
24/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	ACE	1-2 HT 0-1	TPV II
16/04/25 Finland Kolmonen	TPV II	5-3 HT 2-1	ACE
01/07/20 Finland Kolmonen	TPV II	2-2 HT 1-1	ACE
16/08/19 Finland Kolmonen	ACE	6-0 HT 4-0	TPV II
23/05/19 Finland Kolmonen	TPV II	4-1 HT 0-0	ACE

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	16	15	1	0	61	13	46
2	TPV II	16	12	1	3	41	21	37
3	Tampere Utd II	16	11	3	2	32	14	36
4	NoPS	16	11	2	3	52	17	35
5	FC LeKi	15	7	2	6	37	29	23
6	Ylojarvi United	16	7	2	7	32	31	23
7	TP-T	15	6	2	7	40	30	20
8	FC Haka Juniors	16	5	1	10	28	46	16
9	Saaksjærven Loiske	16	4	2	10	19	40	14
10	Fish United	16	3	2	11	19	50	11
11	ACE	16	3	1	12	28	46	10
12	TP-49	16	1	1	14	18	70	4

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ACE	TPV II
Tampere Utd II	0-3 L	3-2 W
NoPS	0-2 L	5-1 W
FC LeKi	4-2 W	2-4 L
TP-49	6-0 W	3-0 W
Fish United	2-5 L	2-1 W
TP-T	1-2 L	3-0 W
Ylojarvi United	1-3 L	5-3 W
Saaksjærven Loiske	1-2 L	2-1 W
FC Haka Juniors	0-5 L	5-0 W
FC Lasten	2-6 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 8 L	8 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: TPV II (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ACE

LLLLLLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	0	2	L
14/08	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	1	0	L
07/08	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-2	2	3	W
31/07	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	6-0	3	2	W
23/07	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	2-3	2-5	0	5	L
03/07	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	8	1	L
25/06	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	3	2	L
12/06	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
02/06	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-5	0	3	L
29/05	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	2-4	2-6	2	7	L

TPV II

WWLWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	3-1	5-3	1	7	W
14/08	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
07/08	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
30/07	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	9	7	L
22/07	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	2	7	W
04/07	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	3-1	3-2	1	6	W
24/06	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	5-1	8	4	W
12/06	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-4	3	2	L
03/06	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	15	8	W
28/05	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ACE vs TPV II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an TPV II win (72%). Probabilities: ACE 13%, draw 15%, TPV II 72%.

How many goals are expected in ACE vs TPV II?

The model expects 4.37 goals (ACE 1.31 · TPV II 3.07), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in ACE vs TPV II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.