Football · Finland Kolmonen · 25/09, 16:30

Prediction: NoPS vs TPV II

Team pages: NoPS · TPV II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

NoPS1.98

TPV II1.88

1X2

40% 23% 36%

NoPS Draw TPV II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

NoPS 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWWL

TPV II 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

NoPS 3–1–2 TPV II (6 last)

TPV II5-1NoPS
TPV II0-4NoPS
NoPS2-3TPV II
TPV II1-9NoPS
NoPS5-1TPV II
NoPS2-2TPV II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NoPS 1590 · TPV II 1600

	NoPS	Draw	TPV II
Our model	41%	23%	37%
Market	40%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NoPS: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NoPS	TPV II
Goals for / against (FT)	3.6 / 0.8	3.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.5	1.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/38/13%	63/25/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6	3.1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.75

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 1.45 · xG: 4.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:32 +32’	2.25	3.75	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NoPS 3–1–2 TPV II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	TPV II	5-1 HT 1-1	NoPS
04/10/25 Finland Kolmonen	TPV II	0-4	NoPS
04/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	NoPS	2-3 HT 1-2	TPV II
09/08/19 Finland Kolmonen	TPV II	1-9 HT 0-3	NoPS
18/05/19 Finland Kolmonen	NoPS	5-1 HT 1-0	TPV II
29/06/18 Finland Kolmonen	NoPS	2-2 HT 1-1	TPV II

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	20	19	1	0	86	17	58
2	TPV II	20	16	1	3	60	24	49
3	Tampere Utd II	20	14	3	3	57	19	45
4	NoPS	20	14	2	4	65	23	44
5	TP-T	19	8	2	9	45	37	26
6	FC LeKi	19	8	2	9	43	40	26
7	FC Haka Juniors	20	8	1	11	41	57	25
8	Ylojarvi United	20	7	2	11	37	45	23
9	Saaksjærven Loiske	20	7	2	11	27	44	23
10	ACE	20	4	1	15	34	58	13
11	Fish United	20	3	2	15	23	66	11
12	TP-49	20	1	1	18	21	109	4

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NoPS	TPV II
Tampere Utd II	1-2 L	3-2 W
TP-T	5-1 W	3-0 W
FC LeKi	3-2 W	5-1 W
TP-49	4-1 W	10-1 W
Fish United	8-0 W	2-0 W
ACE	2-0 W	2-1 W
Ylojarvi United	4-1 W	5-3 W
Saaksjærven Loiske	2-0 W	2-1 W
FC Haka Juniors	7-0 W	5-0 W
FC Lasten	0-1 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 2 L	9 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: NoPS (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NoPS

LWWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
10/09	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	2-1	5-1	8	4	W
04/09	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	7	1	W
29/08	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
20/08	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	3-0	8-0	7	3	W
14/08	ACE Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	6	0	W
07/08	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
31/07	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
24/07	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	3-0	7-0	4	3	W
04/07	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	4	5	L

TPV II

WWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	3-1	5-1	7	4	W
12/09	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	10-1	–	–	W
02/09	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
28/08	ACE Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
19/08	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	3-1	5-3	1	7	W
14/08	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
07/08	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
30/07	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	9	7	L
22/07	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	2	7	W
04/07	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	3-1	3-2	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NoPS vs TPV II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NoPS win (40%). Probabilities: NoPS 40%, draw 23%, TPV II 36%.

How many goals are expected in NoPS vs TPV II?

The model expects 3.87 goals (NoPS 1.98 · TPV II 1.88), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in NoPS vs TPV II?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.