Football · Finland Kolmonen · 27/09, 17:00

Prediction: ACE vs Ylojarvi United

Team pages: ACE · Ylojarvi United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.19Total

ACE2.24

Ylojarvi United1.95

1X2

45% 21% 34%

ACE Draw Ylojarvi United

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

ACE 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLLLLW

Ylojarvi United 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

ACE 2–2 Ylojarvi United (4 last)

Ylojarvi United3-1ACE
Ylojarvi United2-3ACE
ACE3-1Ylojarvi United
ACE2-3Ylojarvi United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ACE 1458 · Ylojarvi United 1429

	ACE	Draw	Ylojarvi United
Our model	45%	21%	34%
Market	45%	21%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 4.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ACE	Ylojarvi United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.6	1.9 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	1 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/25/38%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 2.8	2.4 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.33

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:02 +22’	2.00	4.33	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ACE 2–0–2 Ylojarvi United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	Ylojarvi United	3-1 HT 1-0	ACE
04/10/25 Finland Kolmonen	Ylojarvi United	2-3	ACE
03/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	ACE	3-1 HT 1-1	Ylojarvi United
23/05/24 Finland Kolmonen	ACE	2-3 HT 2-1	Ylojarvi United

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	21	20	1	0	89	18	61
2	TPV II	21	17	1	3	66	28	52
3	Tampere Utd II	20	14	3	3	57	19	45
4	NoPS	21	14	2	5	69	29	44
5	TP-T	19	8	2	9	45	37	26
6	FC LeKi	20	8	2	10	44	43	26
7	FC Haka Juniors	20	8	1	11	41	57	25
8	Ylojarvi United	20	7	2	11	37	45	23
9	Saaksjærven Loiske	21	7	2	12	30	48	23
10	Fish United	21	4	2	15	27	69	14
11	ACE	20	4	1	15	34	58	13
12	TP-49	20	1	1	18	21	109	4

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ACE	Ylojarvi United
Saaksjærven Loiske	2-0 W	0-3 L
FC Haka Juniors	2-4 L	4-5 L
FC Lasten	1-6 L	1-5 L
TPV II	1-2 L	3-5 L
Tampere Utd II	0-3 L	0-3 L
NoPS	0-2 L	1-4 L
FC LeKi	4-2 W	1-1 D
TP-49	6-0 W	5-0 W
Fish United	2-5 L	4-0 W
TP-T	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 7 L	2 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: ACE (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ACE

LLWWLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	5	2	W
11/09	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	–	2-4	–	–	L
03/09	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	1-3	1-6	1	2	L
28/08	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
20/08	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	0	2	L
14/08	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	1	0	L
07/08	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-2	2	3	W
31/07	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	6-0	3	2	W
23/07	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	2-3	2-5	0	5	L
03/07	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	8	1	L

Ylojarvi United

WWDLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
01/09	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	2-3	4-5	5	7	L
29/08	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	–	1-5	–	–	L
19/08	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	1-3	3-5	2	7	L
15/08	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
07/08	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
01/08	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
25/07	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
02/07	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-0	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ACE vs Ylojarvi United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ACE win (45%). Probabilities: ACE 45%, draw 21%, Ylojarvi United 34%.

How many goals are expected in ACE vs Ylojarvi United?

The model expects 4.19 goals (ACE 2.24 · Ylojarvi United 1.95), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in ACE vs Ylojarvi United?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.