Football · Finland Kolmonen · 07/08, 17:30

Prediction: VIFK vs SIF

Team pages: VIFK · SIF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

VIFK2.71

SIF1.07

1X2

72% 16% 12%

VIFK Draw SIF

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

VIFK 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWWWWD

SIF 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLDDWWWL

Head-to-head

VIFK 2–0 SIF (2 last)

SIF0-1VIFK
VIFK3-2SIF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VIFK 1605 · SIF 1497

	VIFK	Draw	SIF
Our model	71%	17%	12%
Market	72%	15%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VIFK (rating 1605 vs 1497).
H2H favours VIFK: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VIFK	SIF
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 0.8	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/50/17%	56/22/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.5	2.1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.25

X6.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
05:54 +5’	1.25	6.00	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VIFK 2–0–0 SIF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	SIF	0-1 HT 0-0	VIFK
27/03/26 Finland Cup	VIFK	3-2 HT 1-1	SIF

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	12	9	2	1	35	9	29
2	FC Kiisto	13	8	3	2	37	16	27
3	Virkia	12	6	2	4	23	18	20
4	FC Ylivieska	13	6	2	5	31	30	20
5	SIF	13	5	3	5	22	23	18
6	VPV Pallo-Veikot	12	5	2	5	16	17	17
7	SJK-j	13	4	4	5	20	21	16
8	Sporting Kristina	12	4	3	5	15	16	15
9	Nykarleby IK	12	3	4	5	16	30	13
10	LBK	13	4	0	9	18	35	12
11	KPV Akatemia	13	2	1	10	26	44	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VIFK	SIF
FC Ylivieska	1-1 D	1-2 L
Nykarleby IK	3-1 W	2-0 W
Sääripotku	7-1 W	5-0 W
Virkia	3-1 W	0-3 L
FC Kiisto	2-1 W	1-5 L
Sporting Kristina	0-1 L	2-1 W
LBK	5-0 W	2-0 W
KPV Akatemia	7-1 W	3-2 W
VPV Pallo-Veikot	2-1 W	1-1 D
SJK-j	0-0 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	7 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: VIFK (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VIFK

DWWWLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	7	11	D
23/07	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
15/07	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	7-1	–	–	W
29/06	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
25/06	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/06	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
11/06	LBK Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
03/06	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	4-1	7-1	7	1	W
27/05	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
23/05	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	–	0-0	–	–	D

SIF

WWLLDDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-5	5	5	L
16/07	LBK Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
10/07	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-1	7	2	W
01/07	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-2	5	1	W
25/06	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
17/06	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
11/06	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
04/06	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
28/05	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	8	3	W
22/05	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VIFK vs SIF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VIFK win (72%). Probabilities: VIFK 72%, draw 16%, SIF 12%.

How many goals are expected in VIFK vs SIF?

The model expects 3.78 goals (VIFK 2.71 · SIF 1.07), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in VIFK vs SIF?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.