Football · Finland Kolmonen · 30/09, 18:00

Prediction: LAUTP vs IPS Edustus

Team pages: LAUTP · IPS Edustus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.41Total

LAUTP2.1

IPS Edustus2.31

1X2

36% 21% 43%

LAUTP Draw IPS Edustus

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

LAUTP 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWLLDD

IPS Edustus 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDLWLL

Head-to-head

LAUTP 3–1 IPS Edustus (4 last)

IPS Edustus6-2LAUTP
IPS Edustus0-3LAUTP
LAUTP2-1IPS Edustus
IPS Edustus0-3LAUTP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LAUTP 1461 · IPS Edustus 1481

	LAUTP	Draw	IPS Edustus
Our model	36%	21%	43%
Market	35%	22%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 4.41 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours LAUTP: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LAUTP	IPS Edustus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.8	2.6 / 3.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.2	0.4 / 1.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/33/50%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	2.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.55

X4.20

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.252.00

Under 4.251.80

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 5.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.55▲	Bet365 2.55
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
05:30 +34’	2.50	4.20	2.10
07:01 +3’	2.55▲	4.20	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · LAUTP 3–0–1 IPS Edustus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	IPS Edustus	6-2	LAUTP
03/10/25 Finland Kolmonen	IPS Edustus	0-3	LAUTP
02/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	LAUTP	2-1 HT 0-0	IPS Edustus
05/06/24 Finland Kolmonen	IPS Edustus	0-3 HT 0-1	LAUTP

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PeKa	21	16	2	3	79	29	50
2	Kultsu FC	21	14	2	5	64	32	44
3	MiPK	21	12	4	5	58	31	40
4	IPS Edustus	21	12	4	5	52	45	40
5	KJP	21	11	3	7	40	25	36
6	HaPK	21	11	2	8	52	47	35
7	MP II	21	10	0	11	49	45	30
8	KoPa	21	8	3	10	31	47	27
9	LAUTP	21	6	5	10	42	54	23
10	Edustus STPS	21	5	2	14	27	51	17
11	LAUTP II	21	3	2	16	18	63	11
12	Kumu	21	2	3	16	28	71	9

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LAUTP	IPS Edustus
Kumu	3-3 D	3-2 W
HaPK	3-3 D	4-5 L
Kultsu FC	0-4 L	2-1 W
PeKa	2-6 L	1-8 L
KoPa	5-2 W	2-3 L
Edustus STPS	1-2 L	5-2 W
KJP	1-1 D	3-2 W
MiPK	0-4 L	2-4 L
MP II	2-3 L	1-2 L
LAUTP II	1-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: IPS Edustus (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LAUTP

WLLDLWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	0-2	3-3	4	3	D
19/09	HaPK Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D
09/09	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-4	7	0	L
02/09	PeKa Finland Kolmonen	–	2-6	–	–	L
26/08	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	2-2	5-2	4	5	W
19/08	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/08	KJP Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	5	1	D
06/08	MiPK Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-4	3	3	L
29/07	MP II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-3	5	5	L
25/07	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W

IPS Edustus

LWLWWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	HaPK Finland Kolmonen	–	4-5	–	–	L
18/09	PeKa Finland Kolmonen	0-5	1-8	2	3	L
12/09	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	5-2	–	–	W
03/09	MiPK Finland Kolmonen	–	2-4	–	–	L
28/08	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D
22/08	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
13/08	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	10	5	W
07/08	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	4	4	L
29/07	KJP Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	5	4	W
26/07	MP II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LAUTP vs IPS Edustus?

According to our model, the most likely result is an IPS Edustus win (43%). Probabilities: LAUTP 36%, draw 21%, IPS Edustus 43%.

How many goals are expected in LAUTP vs IPS Edustus?

The model expects 4.41 goals (LAUTP 2.1 · IPS Edustus 2.31), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in LAUTP vs IPS Edustus?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.