Football · Finland Kolmonen · 03/10, 12:00

Prediction: PeKa vs KJP

Team pages: PeKa · KJP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.18Total

PeKa2.55

KJP1.62

1X2

58% 19% 24%

PeKa Draw KJP

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

PeKa 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWLWW

KJP 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWWWDW

Head-to-head

PeKa 0–2–1 KJP (3 last)

KJP2-0PeKa
KJP2-2PeKa
PeKa1-1KJP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PeKa 1588 · KJP 1563

	PeKa	Draw	KJP
Our model	57%	20%	23%
Market	58%	18%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 4.18 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PeKa	KJP
Goals for / against (FT)	4.4 / 1.4	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	3 / 0.3	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	100/0/0%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 5.8	2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.55

X5.00

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.82

Under 4.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:47 +24’	1.55	5.00	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · PeKa 0–2–1 KJP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	KJP	2-0 HT 1-0	PeKa
30/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	KJP	2-2	PeKa
30/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	PeKa	1-1	KJP

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PeKa	21	16	2	3	79	29	50
2	Kultsu FC	21	14	2	5	64	32	44
3	IPS Edustus	22	13	4	5	56	46	43
4	MiPK	21	12	4	5	58	31	40
5	KJP	21	11	3	7	40	25	36
6	HaPK	21	11	2	8	52	47	35
7	MP II	21	10	0	11	49	45	30
8	KoPa	21	8	3	10	31	47	27
9	LAUTP	22	6	5	11	43	58	23
10	Edustus STPS	21	5	2	14	27	51	17
11	LAUTP II	22	3	3	16	19	64	12
12	Kumu	22	2	4	16	29	72	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PeKa	KJP
MP II	4-2 W	3-0 W
IPS Edustus	8-1 W	2-3 L
HaPK	1-2 L	0-2 L
LAUTP	6-2 W	1-1 D
Edustus STPS	6-0 W	4-1 W
MiPK	2-1 W	2-2 D
LAUTP II	8-1 W	2-0 W
Kumu	3-2 W	1-0 W
Kultsu FC	4-1 W	4-2 W
KoPa	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	8 W 1 D 1 L	6 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: PeKa (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PeKa

DWWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	MP II Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
18/09	IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen	5-0	8-1	4	3	W
12/09	HaPK Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
02/09	LAUTP Finland Kolmonen	–	6-2	–	–	W
29/08	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	6-0	–	–	W
20/08	MiPK Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
13/08	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	4-0	8-1	5	0	W
07/08	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
30/07	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-1	5	2	W
23/07	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-2	9	7	D

KJP

LLWDWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
17/09	MiPK Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
12/09	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
05/09	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
21/08	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	2	7	W
12/08	LAUTP Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
08/08	MP II Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/07	IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	7	4	L
25/07	HaPK Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PeKa vs KJP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PeKa win (58%). Probabilities: PeKa 58%, draw 19%, KJP 24%.

How many goals are expected in PeKa vs KJP?

The model expects 4.18 goals (PeKa 2.55 · KJP 1.62), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in PeKa vs KJP?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.