Football · Finland Kolmonen · 30/09, 18:50

Prediction: TPV II vs Tampere Utd II

Team pages: TPV II · Tampere Utd II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.24Total

TPV II2.23

Tampere Utd II2.01

1X2

43% 22% 35%

TPV II Draw Tampere Utd II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

TPV II 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWWWW

Tampere Utd II 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWWLWL

Head-to-head

TPV II 1–2 Tampere Utd II (3 last)

Tampere Utd II2-3TPV II
Tampere Utd II1-0TPV II
TPV II2-3Tampere Utd II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TPV II 1618 · Tampere Utd II 1542

	TPV II	Draw	Tampere Utd II
Our model	43%	21%	35%
Market	43%	23%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 4.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TPV II (rating 1618 vs 1542).
H2H favours Tampere Utd II: 2-0-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TPV II	Tampere Utd II
Goals for / against (FT)	4.1 / 1.4	3.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	63/25/13%	78/11/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.5	1.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X4.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 1.35 · xG: 5.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:52 +13’	2.10	4.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TPV II 1–0–2 Tampere Utd II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	Tampere Utd II	2-3 HT 1-3	TPV II
27/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	Tampere Utd II	1-0 HT 1-0	TPV II
24/06/25 Finland Kolmonen	TPV II	2-3 HT 1-1	Tampere Utd II

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	21	20	1	0	89	18	61
2	TPV II	21	17	1	3	66	28	52
3	Tampere Utd II	21	14	3	4	58	21	45
4	NoPS	21	14	2	5	69	29	44
5	TP-T	20	9	2	9	47	38	29
6	FC Haka Juniors	21	9	1	11	45	58	28
7	FC LeKi	20	8	2	10	44	43	26
8	Ylojarvi United	21	7	2	12	37	51	23
9	Saaksjærven Loiske	21	7	2	12	30	48	23
10	ACE	21	5	1	15	40	58	16
11	Fish United	21	4	2	15	27	69	14
12	TP-49	21	1	1	19	22	113	4

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TPV II	Tampere Utd II
NoPS	6-4 W	2-1 W
FC LeKi	5-1 W	1-3 L
TP-49	10-1 W	16-0 W
Fish United	2-0 W	6-1 W
ACE	2-1 W	3-0 W
Ylojarvi United	5-3 W	3-0 W
Saaksjærven Loiske	2-1 W	2-0 W
FC Haka Juniors	5-0 W	2-2 D
FC Lasten	1-3 L	1-1 D
TP-T	3-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	9 W 0 D 1 L	6 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tampere Utd II (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TPV II

WLWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	4-1	6-4	5	1	W
16/09	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	3-1	5-1	7	4	W
12/09	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	10-1	–	–	W
02/09	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
28/08	ACE Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
19/08	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	3-1	5-3	1	7	W
14/08	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
07/08	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
30/07	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	9	7	L
22/07	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	2	7	W

Tampere Utd II

DDWWWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
19/09	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
11/09	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	3	2	L
05/09	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	16-0	13	4	W
27/08	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	3-0	6-1	1	3	W
20/08	ACE Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
15/08	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
08/08	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	4	1	W
28/07	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-2	7	6	D
25/07	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	7	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TPV II vs Tampere Utd II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TPV II win (43%). Probabilities: TPV II 43%, draw 22%, Tampere Utd II 35%.

How many goals are expected in TPV II vs Tampere Utd II?

The model expects 4.24 goals (TPV II 2.23 · Tampere Utd II 2.01), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in TPV II vs Tampere Utd II?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.