Football · Finland Kolmonen · 05/08, 19:15

Prediction: LePa vs LoPa

Team pages: LePa · LoPa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

LePa1.95

LoPa1.74

1X2

43% 23% 34%

LePa Draw LoPa

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

LePa 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWLLWW

LoPa 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLWWLW

Head-to-head

LePa 1–0 LoPa (1 last)

LoPa1-3LePa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LePa 1544 · LoPa 1480

	LePa	Draw	LoPa
Our model	43%	23%	34%
Market	43%	23%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LePa (rating 1544 vs 1480).
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LePa	LoPa
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/33/22%	22/33/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.2	1.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X4.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:02 +4’	2.10	4.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LePa 1–0–0 LoPa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	LoPa	1-3	LePa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	13	10	1	2	52	20	31
2	ESPA	13	10	1	2	33	11	31
3	LePa	13	7	2	4	26	22	23
4	NuPS	13	6	4	3	26	17	22
5	Poxyt	13	7	1	5	29	28	22
6	LoPa	13	6	1	6	20	20	19
7	Gilla FC	13	5	2	6	28	28	17
8	MPS	13	3	3	7	12	22	12
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	13	3	3	7	18	34	12
10	EPS Reservi	13	3	3	7	20	39	12
11	GrIFK Reservi	13	3	2	8	21	28	11
12	HooGee	13	3	1	9	21	37	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LePa	LoPa
Poxyt	5-1 W	2-0 W
Gilla FC	2-0 W	3-2 W
ESPA	0-2 L	0-2 L
EPS Reservi	1-2 L	4-1 W
PPJ/Ruoholahti	3-1 W	0-3 L
GrIFK Reservi	0-4 L	1-2 L
EIF Academy	3-2 W	2-3 L
MPS	1-0 W	2-0 W
NuPS	3-3 D	2-2 D
HooGee	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: LePa (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LePa

WDWWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-1	4	2	W
22/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	1	1	W
03/07	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
24/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
10/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	7	4	W
07/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
27/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
22/05	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
13/05	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D
06/05	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	7	0	W

LoPa

WLDLLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-1	2	2	W
27/07	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
23/06	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	4	2	W
16/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
12/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
04/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	1	6	L
29/05	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
22/05	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
15/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-3	2-3	5	1	L
08/05	MPS Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LePa vs LoPa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LePa win (43%). Probabilities: LePa 43%, draw 23%, LoPa 34%.

How many goals are expected in LePa vs LoPa?

The model expects 3.69 goals (LePa 1.95 · LoPa 1.74), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in LePa vs LoPa?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.