Football · Finland Kolmonen · 28/08, 17:30

Prediction: LoPa vs NuPS

Team pages: LoPa · NuPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

LoPa1.96

NuPS1.43

1X2

49% 23% 28%

LoPa Draw NuPS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

LoPa 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLWLWD

NuPS 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWWLLL

Head-to-head

LoPa 0–1–0 NuPS (1 last)

NuPS2-2LoPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LoPa 1493 · NuPS 1505

	LoPa	Draw	NuPS
Our model	49%	24%	27%
Market	50%	22%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LoPa	NuPS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	22/56/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.2	3.2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.00

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:29 +22’	1.80	4.00	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LoPa 0–1–0 NuPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	NuPS	2-2 HT 1-1	LoPa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	16	12	2	2	59	22	38
2	ESPA	16	12	2	2	41	14	38
3	LePa	17	11	2	4	37	28	35
4	Poxyt	16	8	2	6	35	34	26
5	LoPa	16	7	2	7	26	26	23
6	NuPS	16	6	4	6	26	22	22
7	GrIFK Reservi	16	6	2	8	30	31	20
8	Gilla FC	16	6	2	8	32	35	20
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	16	4	3	9	23	41	15
10	HooGee	16	4	1	11	29	45	13
11	MPS	17	3	4	10	15	31	13
12	EPS Reservi	16	3	4	9	22	46	13

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LoPa	NuPS
EIF Academy	2-2 D	0-2 L
MPS	2-1 W	2-0 W
LePa	2-3 L	0-1 L
EPS Reservi	4-1 W	1-1 D
ESPA	0-2 L	0-2 L
Gilla FC	3-2 W	1-1 D
Poxyt	2-0 W	1-2 L
GrIFK Reservi	1-2 L	3-0 W
PPJ/Ruoholahti	0-3 L	6-1 W
HooGee	1-2 L	4-3 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LoPa

LLLWWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	4	0	D
12/08	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
05/08	LePa Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-3	6	4	L
31/07	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-1	2	2	W
27/07	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
23/06	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	4	2	W
16/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
12/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
04/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	1	6	L
29/05	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	4	4	L

NuPS

DDLWWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
14/08	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
07/08	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
31/07	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-3	4	4	W
03/07	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W
25/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	3-1	6-1	7	1	W
17/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
07/06	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	9	5	D
31/05	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LoPa vs NuPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LoPa win (49%). Probabilities: LoPa 49%, draw 23%, NuPS 28%.

How many goals are expected in LoPa vs NuPS?

The model expects 3.39 goals (LoPa 1.96 · NuPS 1.43), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in LoPa vs NuPS?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.