Football · Finland Kolmonen · 03/10, 11:00

Prediction: LoPa vs Poxyt

Team pages: LoPa · Poxyt

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.98Total

LoPa2.02

Poxyt1.96

1X2

40% 22% 38%

LoPa Draw Poxyt

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

LoPa 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDDLWWL

Poxyt 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLWLWD

Head-to-head

LoPa 1–0 Poxyt (1 last)

Poxyt0-2LoPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LoPa 1510 · Poxyt 1483

	LoPa	Draw	Poxyt
Our model	40%	22%	38%
Market	41%	21%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LoPa	Poxyt
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.1	1.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	29/14/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.4	2.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.5	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X4.20

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:49 +19’	2.20	4.20	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · LoPa 1–0–0 Poxyt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	Poxyt	0-2 HT 0-1	LoPa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	21	15	4	2	72	29	49
2	ESPA	21	13	3	5	49	23	42
3	LePa	21	11	3	7	42	37	36
4	Poxyt	21	10	3	8	45	43	33
5	Gilla FC	21	9	3	9	52	42	30
6	LoPa	21	9	3	9	34	38	30
7	NuPS	21	7	6	8	31	31	27
8	GrIFK Reservi	21	8	2	11	36	47	26
9	EPS Reservi	21	6	5	10	33	53	23
10	PPJ/Ruoholahti	21	6	4	11	31	50	22
11	HooGee	21	6	2	13	38	54	20
12	MPS	21	4	6	11	24	40	18

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LoPa	Poxyt
Gilla FC	0-4 L	3-1 W
GrIFK Reservi	3-2 W	1-3 L
PPJ/Ruoholahti	2-1 W	1-2 L
HooGee	1-3 L	2-1 W
NuPS	2-2 D	2-1 W
EIF Academy	2-2 D	2-4 L
MPS	2-1 W	2-2 D
LePa	2-3 L	1-5 L
EPS Reservi	4-1 W	2-2 D
ESPA	0-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: LoPa (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LoPa

LWLWDDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-4	3	9	L
20/09	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-2	3	2	W
11/09	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
03/09	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	4	4	L
28/08	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	0	7	D
20/08	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	4	0	D
12/08	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
05/08	LePa Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-3	6	4	L
31/07	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-1	2	2	W
27/07	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	3	2	L

Poxyt

WLWDLLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	8	3	D
18/09	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/09	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-4	5	1	L
04/09	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W
27/08	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
21/08	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-3	5	4	L
16/08	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	6	2	D
08/08	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/07	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-5	2	2	L
23/07	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LoPa vs Poxyt?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LoPa win (40%). Probabilities: LoPa 40%, draw 22%, Poxyt 38%.

How many goals are expected in LoPa vs Poxyt?

The model expects 3.98 goals (LoPa 2.02 · Poxyt 1.96), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in LoPa vs Poxyt?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.