Football · Finland Kolmonen · 08/08, 13:00

Prediction: Virkia vs Nykarleby IK

Team pages: Virkia · Nykarleby IK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.02Total

Virkia2.53

Nykarleby IK1.49

1X2

60% 19% 21%

Virkia Draw Nykarleby IK

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Virkia 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWLLWW

Nykarleby IK 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWLDDL

Head-to-head

Virkia 0–1–1 Nykarleby IK (2 last)

Nykarleby IK1-1Virkia
Virkia1-6Nykarleby IK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Virkia 1545 · Nykarleby IK 1487

	Virkia	Draw	Nykarleby IK
Our model	59%	20%	21%
Market	60%	19%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 4.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Virkia (rating 1545 vs 1487).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Virkia	Nykarleby IK
Goals for / against (FT)	3.5 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.9 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	22/44/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 6	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.75

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
06:43 +4’	1.50	4.75	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Virkia 0–1–1 Nykarleby IK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	Nykarleby IK	1-1	Virkia
14/08/21 Finland Kolmonen	Virkia	1-6 HT 1-2	Nykarleby IK

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	12	9	2	1	35	9	29
2	FC Kiisto	13	8	3	2	37	16	27
3	Virkia	12	6	2	4	23	18	20
4	FC Ylivieska	13	6	2	5	31	30	20
5	SIF	13	5	3	5	22	23	18
6	VPV Pallo-Veikot	12	5	2	5	16	17	17
7	SJK-j	13	4	4	5	20	21	16
8	Sporting Kristina	12	4	3	5	15	16	15
9	Nykarleby IK	12	3	4	5	16	30	13
10	LBK	13	4	0	9	18	35	12
11	KPV Akatemia	13	2	1	10	26	44	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Virkia	Nykarleby IK
KPV Akatemia	4-2 W	2-1 W
VPV Pallo-Veikot	0-1 L	1-1 D
VIFK	1-3 L	1-3 L
SJK-j	1-0 W	3-1 W
FC Kiisto	3-3 D	0-0 D
SIF	3-0 W	0-2 L
Sporting Kristina	0-2 L	1-1 D
FC Ylivieska	2-1 W	6-4 W
LBK	3-0 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nykarleby IK (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Virkia

WWLWDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-2	7	6	W
25/07	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	18-0	–	–	W
16/07	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
29/06	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
24/06	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
17/06	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-3	7	1	D
11/06	SIF Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
06/06	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	11	1	L
28/05	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
23/05	LBK Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W

Nykarleby IK

DWLWDWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
16/07	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
02/07	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
25/06	LBK Finland Kolmonen	0-4	0-5	0	3	L
18/06	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	9	2	W
11/06	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
04/06	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	10	5	W
28/05	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	0	3	L
21/05	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	3-3	6-4	3	5	W
13/05	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Virkia vs Nykarleby IK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Virkia win (60%). Probabilities: Virkia 60%, draw 19%, Nykarleby IK 21%.

How many goals are expected in Virkia vs Nykarleby IK?

The model expects 4.02 goals (Virkia 2.53 · Nykarleby IK 1.49), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Virkia vs Nykarleby IK?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.