Football · Finland Kolmonen · 27/09, 16:00

Prediction: EPS Reservi vs LePa

Team pages: EPS Reservi · LePa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

EPS Reservi1.99

LePa1.65

1X2

46% 22% 32%

EPS Reservi Draw LePa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

EPS Reservi 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLDLWW

LePa 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWDLL

Head-to-head

EPS Reservi 3–0 LePa (3 last)

LePa1-2EPS Reservi
EPS Reservi4-1LePa
LePa0-6EPS Reservi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EPS Reservi 1497 · LePa 1525

	EPS Reservi	Draw	LePa
Our model	45%	23%	32%
Market	46%	21%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours EPS Reservi: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EPS Reservi	LePa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.2	2.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/13/63%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.6	1.3 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X4.33

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.95▼	Bet365 1.95
X	4.20 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33
2	2.50 → 2.75▲	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:15 +7’	2.10	4.20	2.50
09:08 +3’	1.95▼	4.33▲	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · EPS Reservi 3–0–0 LePa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	LePa	1-2 HT 0-0	EPS Reservi
31/07/22 Finland Kolmonen	EPS Reservi	4-1 HT 1-1	LePa
21/04/22 Finland Kolmonen	LePa	0-6 HT 0-3	EPS Reservi

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	21	15	4	2	72	29	49
2	ESPA	21	13	3	5	49	23	42
3	LePa	20	11	3	6	41	34	36
4	Poxyt	21	10	3	8	45	43	33
5	LoPa	20	9	3	8	34	34	30
6	Gilla FC	20	8	3	9	48	42	27
7	NuPS	21	7	6	8	31	31	27
8	GrIFK Reservi	21	8	2	11	36	47	26
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	21	6	4	11	31	50	22
10	HooGee	21	6	2	13	38	54	20
11	EPS Reservi	20	5	5	10	30	52	20
12	MPS	21	4	6	11	24	40	18

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EPS Reservi	LePa
MPS	3-1 W	2-0 W
ESPA	3-1 W	0-2 L
NuPS	0-2 L	1-0 W
Gilla FC	2-2 D	2-0 W
HooGee	0-2 L	5-4 W
Poxyt	2-2 D	5-1 W
EIF Academy	0-3 L	1-1 D
LoPa	1-4 L	3-2 W
GrIFK Reservi	2-0 W	0-1 L
PPJ/Ruoholahti	1-5 L	3-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 5 L	6 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: LePa (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

EPS Reservi

LWLLDLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	MPS Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
11/09	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
04/09	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
28/08	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	7	0	D
20/08	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	6	4	L
16/08	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
06/08	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	1	1	L
31/07	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-4	1-4	4	2	L
26/07	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
03/07	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-5	3	3	L

LePa

LWWWWWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	2-2	3-4	2	3	L
09/09	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
03/09	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
26/08	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
21/08	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
13/08	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-4	2	3	W
05/08	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
31/07	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-1	4	2	W
22/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	1	1	W
03/07	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EPS Reservi vs LePa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a EPS Reservi win (46%). Probabilities: EPS Reservi 46%, draw 22%, LePa 32%.

How many goals are expected in EPS Reservi vs LePa?

The model expects 3.64 goals (EPS Reservi 1.99 · LePa 1.65), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in EPS Reservi vs LePa?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.