Football · Finland Kolmonen · 20/08, 19:15

Prediction: HooGee vs EPS Reservi

Team pages: HooGee · EPS Reservi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.43Total

HooGee2.22

EPS Reservi2.22

1X2

40% 20% 40%

HooGee Draw EPS Reservi

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

HooGee 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLLLL

EPS Reservi 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLWLLD

Head-to-head

HooGee 2–2 EPS Reservi (4 last)

EPS Reservi6-2HooGee
EPS Reservi3-4HooGee
HooGee3-0EPS Reservi
HooGee1-3EPS Reservi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HooGee 1423 · EPS Reservi 1445

	HooGee	Draw	EPS Reservi
Our model	40%	21%	40%
Market	40%	20%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 4.43 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HooGee	EPS Reservi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 3.1	1.3 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.4	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	22/33/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.6	1.4 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X4.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.95

Under 4.251.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:58 +5’	2.25	4.50	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HooGee 2–0–2 EPS Reservi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	EPS Reservi	6-2 HT 3-0	HooGee
14/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	EPS Reservi	3-4 HT 0-4	HooGee
05/06/25 Finland Kolmonen	HooGee	3-0 HT 2-0	EPS Reservi
13/06/24 Finland Kolmonen	HooGee	1-3 HT 1-1	EPS Reservi

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	15	12	1	2	57	20	37
2	ESPA	15	12	1	2	39	12	37
3	LePa	15	9	2	4	34	28	29
4	Poxyt	15	8	2	5	34	31	26
5	NuPS	15	6	4	5	26	21	22
6	LoPa	15	7	1	7	24	24	22
7	GrIFK Reservi	15	5	2	8	27	30	17
8	Gilla FC	15	5	2	8	30	35	17
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	15	4	3	8	23	39	15
10	EPS Reservi	15	3	4	8	22	44	13
11	MPS	15	3	3	9	13	27	12
12	HooGee	15	3	1	11	27	45	10

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HooGee	EPS Reservi
LePa	4-5 L	2-1 W
PPJ/Ruoholahti	2-3 L	1-5 L
NuPS	3-4 L	1-1 D
Poxyt	1-2 L	2-2 D
EIF Academy	2-4 L	0-3 L
ESPA	0-3 L	2-4 L
MPS	0-2 L	0-0 D
LoPa	2-1 W	1-4 L
GrIFK Reservi	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 7 L	2 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: EPS Reservi (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HooGee

WWLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	4-5	3	3	L
06/08	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
31/07	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-4	1	4	L
23/07	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
01/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	2-3	3-6	7	1	L
25/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-4	4	1	L
12/06	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-3	1	3	L
05/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
29/05	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
21/05	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	2	5	W

EPS Reservi

DLDLWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
06/08	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	1	1	L
31/07	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-4	1-4	4	2	L
26/07	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
03/07	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-5	3	3	L
24/06	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	2-3	2-9	0	1	L
14/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/06	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	–	2-4	–	–	L
31/05	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	10	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HooGee vs EPS Reservi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HooGee win (40%). Probabilities: HooGee 40%, draw 20%, EPS Reservi 40%.

How many goals are expected in HooGee vs EPS Reservi?

The model expects 4.43 goals (HooGee 2.22 · EPS Reservi 2.22), with a 50% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in HooGee vs EPS Reservi?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.