Football · Finland Kolmonen · 21/08, 17:15

Prediction: Poxyt vs GrIFK Reservi

Team pages: Poxyt · GrIFK Reservi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.17Total

Poxyt2.22

GrIFK Reservi1.94

1X2

45% 21% 34%

Poxyt Draw GrIFK Reservi

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Poxyt 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLWLWD

GrIFK Reservi 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLLLWW

Head-to-head

Poxyt 3–2–0 GrIFK Reservi (5 last)

GrIFK Reservi2-4Poxyt
Poxyt3-3GrIFK Reservi
GrIFK Reservi3-3Poxyt
GrIFK Reservi2-4Poxyt
Poxyt1-0GrIFK Reservi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Poxyt 1483 · GrIFK Reservi 1498

	Poxyt	Draw	GrIFK Reservi
Our model	45%	21%	34%
Market	45%	21%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 4.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Poxyt: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Poxyt	GrIFK Reservi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.6	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/22/56%	44/22/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3	2.3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.20

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:38 +4’	2.00	4.20	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Poxyt 3–2–0 GrIFK Reservi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	GrIFK Reservi	2-4	Poxyt
19/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	Poxyt	3-3 HT 2-2	GrIFK Reservi
11/06/25 Finland Kolmonen	GrIFK Reservi	3-3 HT 1-0	Poxyt
25/08/22 Finland Kolmonen	GrIFK Reservi	2-4 HT 0-2	Poxyt
20/05/22 Finland Kolmonen	Poxyt	1-0 HT 1-0	GrIFK Reservi

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	15	12	1	2	57	20	37
2	ESPA	15	12	1	2	39	12	37
3	LePa	15	9	2	4	34	28	29
4	Poxyt	15	8	2	5	34	31	26
5	NuPS	15	6	4	5	26	21	22
6	LoPa	15	7	1	7	24	24	22
7	GrIFK Reservi	15	5	2	8	27	30	17
8	Gilla FC	15	5	2	8	30	35	17
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	15	4	3	8	23	39	15
10	EPS Reservi	15	3	4	8	22	44	13
11	MPS	15	3	3	9	13	27	12
12	HooGee	15	3	1	11	27	45	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Poxyt	GrIFK Reservi
EPS Reservi	2-2 D	0-2 L
Gilla FC	3-1 W	1-2 L
LePa	1-5 L	4-0 W
HooGee	2-1 W	1-2 L
MPS	2-3 L	3-0 W
LoPa	0-2 L	2-1 W
NuPS	2-1 W	0-3 L
EIF Academy	3-7 L	1-2 L
ESPA	1-4 L	4-2 W
PPJ/Ruoholahti	3-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 5 L	5 W 0 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Poxyt

WLLWLLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	6	2	D
08/08	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/07	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-5	2	2	L
23/07	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
28/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-3	2	2	L
16/06	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
10/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
05/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	2-4	3-7	1	4	L
29/05	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-4	2	5	L
22/05	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	3-0	5	1	W

GrIFK Reservi

LLWWWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	3	1	W
06/08	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
30/07	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	3	8	L
26/07	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
03/07	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
28/06	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-2	5	5	W
12/06	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	8	5	W
07/06	LePa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	4	3	W
27/05	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	9	5	L
21/05	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Poxyt vs GrIFK Reservi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Poxyt win (45%). Probabilities: Poxyt 45%, draw 21%, GrIFK Reservi 34%.

How many goals are expected in Poxyt vs GrIFK Reservi?

The model expects 4.17 goals (Poxyt 2.22 · GrIFK Reservi 1.94), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Poxyt vs GrIFK Reservi?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.