Football · Finland Kolmonen · 03/10, 11:00

Prediction: GrIFK Reservi vs NuPS

Team pages: GrIFK Reservi · NuPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

GrIFK Reservi1.74

NuPS1.64

1X2

40% 23% 36%

GrIFK Reservi Draw NuPS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

GrIFK Reservi 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLWLL

NuPS 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDWLLD

Head-to-head

GrIFK Reservi 2–4 NuPS (6 last)

NuPS3-0GrIFK Reservi
GrIFK Reservi1-0NuPS
NuPS3-0GrIFK Reservi
GrIFK Reservi0-1NuPS
GrIFK Reservi2-0NuPS
NuPS2-0GrIFK Reservi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · GrIFK Reservi 1490 · NuPS 1462

	GrIFK Reservi	Draw	NuPS
Our model	40%	25%	36%
Market	41%	22%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NuPS: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	GrIFK Reservi	NuPS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.3	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/22/33%	0/57/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.7	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X4.00

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:05 +3’	2.20	4.00	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · GrIFK Reservi 2–0–4 NuPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	NuPS	3-0	GrIFK Reservi
06/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	GrIFK Reservi	1-0 HT 0-0	NuPS
03/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	NuPS	3-0 HT 2-0	GrIFK Reservi
07/08/24 Finland Kolmonen	GrIFK Reservi	0-1 HT 0-1	NuPS
20/09/23 Finland Kolmonen	GrIFK Reservi	2-0 HT 1-0	NuPS
16/06/23 Finland Kolmonen	NuPS	2-0 HT 2-0	GrIFK Reservi

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	21	15	4	2	72	29	49
2	ESPA	21	13	3	5	49	23	42
3	LePa	21	11	3	7	42	37	36
4	Poxyt	21	10	3	8	45	43	33
5	Gilla FC	21	9	3	9	52	42	30
6	LoPa	21	9	3	9	34	38	30
7	NuPS	21	7	6	8	31	31	27
8	GrIFK Reservi	21	8	2	11	36	47	26
9	EPS Reservi	21	6	5	10	33	53	23
10	PPJ/Ruoholahti	21	6	4	11	31	50	22
11	HooGee	21	6	2	13	38	54	20
12	MPS	21	4	6	11	24	40	18

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	GrIFK Reservi	NuPS
ESPA	0-6 L	0-2 L
LOPA	2-3 L	2-2 D
LePa	1-0 W	0-1 L
Gilla FC	1-7 L	0-5 L
HooGee	2-0 W	4-3 W
Poxyt	3-1 W	1-2 L
PPJ/Ruoholahti	3-2 W	0-0 D
EIF Academy	1-2 L	0-2 L
EPS Reservi	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: GrIFK Reservi (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

GrIFK Reservi

LLWWWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	–	0-6	0	0	L
20/09	LOPA Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-3	4	2	L
09/09	LePa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
05/09	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-7	0	4	L
30/08	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
21/08	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
16/08	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	3	1	W
06/08	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
30/07	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	3	8	L
26/07	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	8	2	L

NuPS

WWLLLDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
18/09	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/09	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-5	7	7	L
04/09	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
28/08	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	3	7	D
21/08	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
14/08	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
07/08	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
31/07	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-3	4	4	W
03/07	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in GrIFK Reservi vs NuPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a GrIFK Reservi win (40%). Probabilities: GrIFK Reservi 40%, draw 23%, NuPS 36%.

How many goals are expected in GrIFK Reservi vs NuPS?

The model expects 3.37 goals (GrIFK Reservi 1.74 · NuPS 1.64), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in GrIFK Reservi vs NuPS?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.