Football · Finland Kolmonen · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: HauPa vs KaPa Kajaani

Team pages: HauPa · KaPa Kajaani

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.07Total

HauPa1.88

KaPa Kajaani2.19

1X2

33% 22% 45%

HauPa Draw KaPa Kajaani

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

HauPa 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDLWDW

KaPa Kajaani 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWLWWW

Head-to-head

HauPa 1–3 KaPa Kajaani (4 last)

KaPa Kajaani0-1HauPa
HauPa1-4KaPa Kajaani
KaPa Kajaani4-2HauPa
KaPa Kajaani6-1HauPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HauPa 1535 · KaPa Kajaani 1550

	HauPa	Draw	KaPa Kajaani
Our model	33%	22%	45%
Market	33%	21%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 4.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours KaPa Kajaani: 3-0-1.
High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HauPa	KaPa Kajaani
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.2	3.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.7	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/17/33%	75/0/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.3	4 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X4.20

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.75▲	Bet365 2.75
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:52 +1’	2.70	4.20	2.00
20:45 +1’	2.75▲	4.20	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HauPa 1–0–3 KaPa Kajaani

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	KaPa Kajaani	0-1	HauPa
13/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	HauPa	1-4	KaPa Kajaani
28/06/25 Finland Kolmonen	KaPa Kajaani	4-2	HauPa
28/04/24 Finland Kolmonen	KaPa Kajaani	6-1 HT 2-0	HauPa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, North Group

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kajha	10	7	0	3	38	12	21
2	HauPa	10	5	3	2	32	12	18
3	Villan Pojat	10	5	3	2	20	14	18
4	KePS	10	5	2	3	28	15	17
5	KaPa Kajaani	10	5	1	4	35	13	16
6	Hercules-J	11	4	2	5	18	26	14
7	RoPo	9	4	1	4	19	16	13
8	Ajax Sarkkiranta	9	4	1	4	14	17	13
9	Santa Claus	10	1	3	6	7	35	6
10	PonPa	9	0	2	7	7	58	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HauPa	KaPa Kajaani
PonPa	7-0 W	12-0 W
Hercules-J	2-2 D	2-3 L
Villan Pojat	2-1 W	5-0 W
Kajha	2-3 L	1-2 L
Santa Claus	2-2 D	4-0 W
KePS	1-1 D	2-3 L
Ajax Sarkkiranta	2-0 W	2-1 W
RoPo	0-2 L	5-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: KaPa Kajaani (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HauPa

WWLWDDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	PonPa Finland Kolmonen	–	7-0	–	–	W
12/07	Hercules-J Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
04/07	Villan Pojat Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	10	3	W
27/06	Kajha Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-3	5	3	L
13/06	Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
31/05	KePS Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
21/05	Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	4	0	W
16/05	RoPo Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
09/05	KaPa Kajaani Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/04	PonPa Finland Kolmonen	5-1	13-1	–	–	W

KaPa Kajaani

DLLWLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	RoPo Finland Kolmonen	–	5-1	–	–	W
12/07	Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
05/07	PonPa Finland Kolmonen	–	12-0	–	–	W
27/06	Hercules-J Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-3	8	5	L
13/06	Villan Pojat Finland Kolmonen	1-0	5-0	10	2	W
03/06	Kajha Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	6	7	L
23/05	Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen	–	4-0	–	–	W
16/05	KePS Finland Kolmonen	–	2-3	–	–	L
09/05	HauPa Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
25/04	RoPo Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HauPa vs KaPa Kajaani?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KaPa Kajaani win (45%). Probabilities: HauPa 33%, draw 22%, KaPa Kajaani 45%.

How many goals are expected in HauPa vs KaPa Kajaani?

The model expects 4.07 goals (HauPa 1.88 · KaPa Kajaani 2.19), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in HauPa vs KaPa Kajaani?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.