Football · Finland Kolmonen · 27/09, 16:30

Prediction: Villan Pojat vs HauPa

Team pages: Villan Pojat · HauPa

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.91Total

Villan Pojat2.05

HauPa1.85

1X2

43% 22% 35%

Villan Pojat Draw HauPa

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Villan Pojat 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWWWDW

HauPa 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLWDWW

Head-to-head

Villan Pojat 0–5 HauPa (5 last)

HauPa2-1Villan Pojat
HauPa5-0Villan Pojat
Villan Pojat2-4HauPa
HauPa6-0Villan Pojat
Villan Pojat3-4HauPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Villan Pojat 1587 · HauPa 1538

	Villan Pojat	Draw	HauPa
Our model	43%	22%	35%
Market	43%	21%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villan Pojat (rating 1587 vs 1538).
H2H favours HauPa: 5-0-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Villan Pojat	HauPa
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 0.8	3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X4.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.26 ★
X	4.75 → 4.20▼	Pinn 4.48
2	3.90 → 2.50▼	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
13:44 +43’	1.53	4.75	3.90
15:22 +11’	2.05▲	4.20▼	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:02 +31’	2.26	4.48	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Villan Pojat 0–0–5 HauPa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	HauPa	2-1 HT 1-1	Villan Pojat
27/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	HauPa	5-0	Villan Pojat
09/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	Villan Pojat	2-4	HauPa
02/05/24 Finland Kolmonen	HauPa	6-0 HT 4-0	Villan Pojat
07/04/23 Finland Cup	Villan Pojat	3-4 HT 1-2	HauPa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, North Group

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kajha	17	11	2	4	71	19	35
2	Villan Pojat	16	9	5	2	36	18	32
3	KePS	17	9	4	4	42	20	31
4	HauPa	16	8	4	4	49	23	28
5	KaPa Kajaani	16	8	3	5	50	20	27
6	RoPo	16	7	2	7	32	37	23
7	Ajax Sarkkiranta	16	6	2	8	34	40	20
8	Hercules-J	17	5	3	9	25	46	18
9	Santa Claus	17	2	6	9	22	55	12
10	PonPa	16	0	3	13	11	94	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Villan Pojat	HauPa
RoPo	6-2 W	1-2 L
KaPa Kajaani	0-0 D	1-2 L
PonPa	4-0 W	7-0 W
Hercules-J	3-1 W	2-2 D
Ajax Sarkkiranta	2-0 W	7-3 W
Kajha	1-1 D	3-2 W
Santa Claus	3-0 W	4-1 W
KePS	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Villan Pojat (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Villan Pojat

LWWWDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	RoPo Finland Kolmonen	–	6-2	–	–	W
12/09	KaPa Kajaani Finland Kolmonen	–	0-0	–	–	D
05/09	PonPa Finland Kolmonen	–	4-0	–	–	W
29/08	Hercules-J Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
15/08	Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	Kajha Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
01/08	RoPo Finland Kolmonen	–	5-1	–	–	W
18/07	Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W
11/07	KePS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
04/07	HauPa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	3	3	L

HauPa

LWDWLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Kajha Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
12/09	Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
05/09	KePS Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen	–	7-3	–	–	W
15/08	RoPo Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	KaPa Kajaani Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
30/07	PonPa Finland Kolmonen	–	7-0	–	–	W
12/07	Hercules-J Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
04/07	Villan Pojat Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	10	3	W
27/06	Kajha Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-3	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Villan Pojat vs HauPa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Villan Pojat win (43%). Probabilities: Villan Pojat 43%, draw 22%, HauPa 35%.

How many goals are expected in Villan Pojat vs HauPa?

The model expects 3.91 goals (Villan Pojat 2.05 · HauPa 1.85), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Villan Pojat vs HauPa?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.