Football · Finland Kolmonen · 16/07, 18:00

Prediction: SIF vs LBK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.92Total

SIF2.89

LBK1.03

1X2

75% 14% 11%

SIF Draw LBK

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

SIF 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLDDWW

LBK 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLDWL

Head-to-head

SIF 3–0 LBK (3 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SIF 1530 · LBK 1415

	SIF	Draw	LBK
Our model	75%	15%	10%
Market	76%	13%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.92 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SIF (rating 1530 vs 1415).
H2H favours SIF: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SIF	LBK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	1.1 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/22/22%	17/33/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.7	1.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · SIF 3–0–0 LBK

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	LBK	1-4 HT 1-2	SIF
20/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	LBK	0-2 HT 0-0	SIF
26/06/25 Finland Kolmonen	SIF	2-1 HT 1-1	LBK

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	11	9	1	1	37	7	28
2	FC Kiisto	11	8	2	1	34	14	26
3	SIF	12	5	3	4	24	18	18
4	Virkia	10	5	2	3	19	15	17
5	FC Ylivieska	11	5	1	5	35	29	16
6	SJK-j	11	4	3	4	22	14	15
7	Nykarleby IK	11	4	3	4	16	27	15
8	VPV Pallo-Veikot	9	4	2	3	17	14	14
9	Sporting Kristina	10	4	2	4	15	14	14
10	KPV Akatemia	10	2	1	7	24	32	7
11	LBK	11	2	1	8	12	30	7
12	Sääripotku	9	0	1	8	3	44	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SIF	LBK
Sporting Kristina	2-1 W	1-2 L
KPV Akatemia	3-2 W	2-1 W
VPV Pallo-Veikot	1-1 D	1-3 L
SJK-j	2-2 D	0-2 L
Virkia	0-3 L	0-3 L
FC Ylivieska	1-2 L	1-4 L
Nykarleby IK	2-0 W	5-0 W
Sääripotku	5-0 W	1-1 D
VIFK	0-1 L	0-5 L
FC Kiisto	2-3 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: SIF (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SIF

LLWWLLDDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/07	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-1	7	2	W
01/07	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-2	5	1	W
25/06	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
17/06	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
11/06	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
04/06	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
28/05	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	8	3	W
22/05	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
16/05	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
07/05	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-3	4	1	L

LBK

LLWLLLLDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/07	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	1-3	1-4	5	5	L
25/06	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	4-0	5-0	3	3	W
18/06	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/06	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	–	0-5	–	–	L
04/06	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-5	2	5	L
27/05	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	7	5	L
23/05	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
13/05	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
07/05	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
03/05	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SIF vs LBK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SIF win (75%). Probabilities: SIF 75%, draw 14%, LBK 11%.

How many goals are expected in SIF vs LBK?

The model expects 3.92 goals (SIF 2.89 · LBK 1.03), with a 54% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SIF vs LBK?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.