Football · Finland Kolmonen · 25/07, 14:00

Prediction: TP-49 vs Ylojarvi United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.41Total

TP-491.2

Ylojarvi United3.2

1X2

7% 10% 83%

TP-49 Draw Ylojarvi United

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-3

Recent form · 10 last

TP-49 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLLLLL

Ylojarvi United 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWLLWW

Head-to-head

TP-49 0–4 Ylojarvi United (4 last)

Ylojarvi United4-0TP-49
TP-492-4Ylojarvi United
Ylojarvi United8-0TP-49

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TP-49 1364 · Ylojarvi United 1530

	TP-49	Draw	Ylojarvi United
Our model	10%	14%	76%
Market	4%	7%	88%

Estimated total (ours) 4.41 goals · Bet365 line 4.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ylojarvi United (rating 1364 vs 1530).
H2H favours Ylojarvi United: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TP-49	Ylojarvi United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 3.5	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 2	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/0/100%	63/13/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.5 / 3	3.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

121.00

X13.00

21.06

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.82

2 (-3.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.95

Under 4.751.85

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	21.00 → 21.00	Bet365 21.00
X	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00
2	1.06 → 1.06	Bet365 1.06

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
08:08 +2’	21.00	13.00	1.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TP-49 0–0–4 Ylojarvi United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	Ylojarvi United	4-0 HT 2-0	TP-49
26/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	TP-49	2-4 HT 1-1	Ylojarvi United
12/04/25 Finland Kolmonen	Ylojarvi United	8-0 HT 4-0	TP-49
29/06/24 Finland Kolmonen	TP-49	0-4 HT 0-0	Ylojarvi United

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	11	11	0	0	48	9	33
2	TPV II	12	9	1	2	28	14	28
3	Tampere Utd II	11	8	1	2	21	11	25
4	NoPS	11	6	2	3	29	16	20
5	Ylojarvi United	11	6	1	4	22	18	19
6	FC Haka Juniors	11	5	0	6	25	23	15
7	Saaksjærven Loiske	11	4	2	5	16	27	14
8	FC LeKi	10	4	1	5	20	20	13
9	TP-T	11	3	2	6	18	24	11
10	Fish United	12	3	2	7	14	27	11
11	ACE	12	1	1	10	18	39	4
12	TP-49	11	0	1	10	8	39	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TP-49	Ylojarvi United
Saaksjærven Loiske	3-4 L	0-4 L
FC Haka Juniors	1-3 L	4-2 W
FC Lasten	0-4 L	0-4 L
TPV II	0-3 L	2-2 D
Tampere Utd II	0-2 L	0-1 L
NoPS	1-10 L	3-1 W
FC LeKi	1-2 L	1-0 W
TP-T	1-4 L	1-3 L
Fish United	0-2 L	4-0 W
ACE	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 9 L	5 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Ylojarvi United (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TP-49

DLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/07	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	1-3	3-4	3	1	L
24/06	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
12/06	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	–	0-4	–	–	L
03/06	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	2	8	L
27/05	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
22/05	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	–	1-10	–	–	L
16/05	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
09/05	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
28/04	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
25/04	ACE Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D

Ylojarvi United

WWLDLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/07	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-0	9	5	W
25/06	ACE Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	9	2	W
11/06	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
05/06	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	–	0-4	–	–	L
28/05	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-2	4	2	W
21/05	FC Lasten Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
14/05	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
09/05	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
02/05	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	3	1	W
24/04	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TP-49 vs Ylojarvi United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ylojarvi United win (83%). Probabilities: TP-49 7%, draw 10%, Ylojarvi United 83%.

How many goals are expected in TP-49 vs Ylojarvi United?

The model expects 4.41 goals (TP-49 1.2 · Ylojarvi United 3.2), with a 56% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in TP-49 vs Ylojarvi United?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.