Football · Finland Kolmonen · 25/07, 14:00

Prediction: KJP vs HaPK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

KJP1.81

HaPK1.88

1X2

37% 22% 40%

KJP Draw HaPK

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

KJP 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWWLLW

HaPK 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWLWLL

Head-to-head

KJP 0–1–2 HaPK (3 last)

HaPK1-0KJP
KJP2-2HaPK
HaPK1-0KJP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KJP 1504 · HaPK 1520

	KJP	Draw	HaPK
Our model	37%	23%	40%
Market	38%	22%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours HaPK: 2-1-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KJP	HaPK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	2.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/29/29%	50/0/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	1.8 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X4.10

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
08:08 +2’	2.38	4.10	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KJP 0–1–2 HaPK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	HaPK	1-0	KJP
24/08/23 Finland Kolmonen	KJP	2-2 HT 2-1	HaPK
19/05/23 Finland Kolmonen	HaPK	1-0 HT 0-0	KJP

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Eastern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kultsu FC	12	9	2	1	36	9	29
2	IPS Edustus	11	8	3	0	26	13	27
3	PeKa	12	8	2	2	37	17	26
4	MiPK	11	6	2	3	26	17	20
5	HaPK	11	6	1	4	26	21	19
6	KoPa	12	5	2	5	17	23	17
7	KJP	11	5	1	5	19	14	16
8	LAUTP	11	4	2	5	24	26	14
9	MP II	11	4	0	7	23	22	12
10	Edustus STPS	12	2	1	9	13	28	7
11	Kumu	11	2	1	8	14	40	7
12	LAUTP II	11	0	1	10	4	35	1

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KJP	HaPK
PeKa	2-0 W	2-4 L
Edustus STPS	1-3 L	4-0 W
MiPK	1-3 L	4-3 W
LAUTP II	1-0 W	0-0 D
Kumu	4-0 W	5-1 W
Kultsu FC	1-3 L	0-4 L
KoPa	4-0 W	2-0 W
LAUTP	2-2 D	5-2 W
MP II	3-1 W	1-4 L
IPS Edustus	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: KJP (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KJP

LWDWLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/07	PeKa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	2	8	W
27/06	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
17/06	MiPK Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	5	2	L
11/06	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
06/06	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	–	4-0	–	–	W
28/05	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
22/05	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	5	3	W
14/05	LAUTP Finland Kolmonen	2-2	2-2	8	2	D
06/05	MP II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	2	2	W
02/05	IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L

HaPK

WLWDWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	MP II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-4	10	1	L
27/06	IPS Edustus Finland Kolmonen	–	2-3	–	–	L
17/06	LAUTP Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-2	5	6	W
13/06	PeKa Finland Kolmonen	–	2-4	–	–	L
06/06	Edustus STPS Finland Kolmonen	–	4-0	–	–	W
28/05	MiPK Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-3	3	5	W
23/05	LAUTP II Finland Kolmonen	–	0-0	–	–	D
17/05	Kumu Finland Kolmonen	–	5-1	–	–	W
06/05	Kultsu FC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-4	7	3	L
29/04	KoPa Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KJP vs HaPK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an HaPK win (40%). Probabilities: KJP 37%, draw 22%, HaPK 40%.

How many goals are expected in KJP vs HaPK?

The model expects 3.69 goals (KJP 1.81 · HaPK 1.88), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KJP vs HaPK?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.