Football · Finland Kolmonen · 21/08, 17:00

Prediction: NuPS vs LePa

Team pages: NuPS · LePa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.88Total

NuPS2.03

LePa1.85

1X2

42% 22% 36%

NuPS Draw LePa

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

NuPS 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLWWWWLL

LePa 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWWWW

Head-to-head

NuPS 0–1–0 LePa (1 last)

LePa3-3NuPS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NuPS 1524 · LePa 1544

	NuPS	Draw	LePa
Our model	42%	23%	35%
Market	43%	21%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NuPS	LePa
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	2.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.3	1.9 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X4.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:25 +23’	2.10	4.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NuPS 0–1–0 LePa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	LePa	3-3	NuPS

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	15	12	1	2	57	20	37
2	ESPA	15	12	1	2	39	12	37
3	LePa	15	9	2	4	34	28	29
4	Poxyt	15	8	2	5	34	31	26
5	NuPS	15	6	4	5	26	21	22
6	LoPa	15	7	1	7	24	24	22
7	GrIFK Reservi	15	5	2	8	27	30	17
8	Gilla FC	15	5	2	8	30	35	17
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	15	4	3	8	23	39	15
10	EPS Reservi	15	3	4	8	22	44	13
11	MPS	15	3	3	9	13	27	12
12	HooGee	15	3	1	11	27	45	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NuPS	LePa
EIF Academy	0-2 L	3-2 W
ESPA	0-2 L	0-2 L
HooGee	4-3 W	5-4 W
GrIFK Reservi	3-0 W	0-4 L
PPJ/Ruoholahti	6-1 W	3-1 W
MPS	2-0 W	1-0 W
Poxyt	1-2 L	5-1 W
Gilla FC	1-1 D	2-0 W
EPS Reservi	1-1 D	1-2 L
LoPa	2-2 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 3 L	7 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NuPS

DDDLWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
07/08	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
31/07	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-3	4	4	W
03/07	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W
25/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	3-1	6-1	7	1	W
17/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
07/06	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	9	5	D
31/05	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
22/05	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	4	7	D

LePa

WWLWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-4	2	3	W
05/08	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
31/07	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-1	4	2	W
22/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	1	1	W
03/07	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
24/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
10/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	7	4	W
07/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
27/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
22/05	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NuPS vs LePa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NuPS win (42%). Probabilities: NuPS 42%, draw 22%, LePa 36%.

How many goals are expected in NuPS vs LePa?

The model expects 3.88 goals (NuPS 2.03 · LePa 1.85), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NuPS vs LePa?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.