Football · Finland Kolmonen · 25/09, 18:15

Prediction: ESPA vs GrIFK Reservi

Team pages: ESPA · GrIFK Reservi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

ESPA2

GrIFK Reservi1.27

1X2

55% 22% 24%

ESPA Draw GrIFK Reservi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

ESPA 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDDLLL

GrIFK Reservi 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWLWL

Head-to-head

ESPA 2–1–2 GrIFK Reservi (5 last)

GrIFK Reservi4-2ESPA
GrIFK Reservi3-4ESPA
ESPA0-0GrIFK Reservi
ESPA0-1GrIFK Reservi
GrIFK Reservi1-2ESPA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ESPA 1500 · GrIFK Reservi 1512

	ESPA	Draw	GrIFK Reservi
Our model	53%	24%	23%
Market	55%	20%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ESPA	GrIFK Reservi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.6 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	44/22/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	1.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.50

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:59 +7’	1.61	4.50	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ESPA 2–1–2 GrIFK Reservi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	GrIFK Reservi	4-2 HT 1-0	ESPA
31/07/24 Finland Kolmonen	GrIFK Reservi	3-4 HT 0-3	ESPA
07/07/23 Finland Kolmonen	ESPA	0-0 HT 0-0	GrIFK Reservi
17/09/22 Finland Kolmonen	ESPA	0-1 HT 0-1	GrIFK Reservi
08/06/22 Finland Kolmonen	GrIFK Reservi	1-2 HT 0-1	ESPA

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	20	14	4	2	69	28	46
2	ESPA	20	12	3	5	43	23	39
3	LePa	20	11	3	6	41	34	36
4	Poxyt	20	10	2	8	43	41	32
5	LOPA	20	9	3	8	34	34	30
6	Gilla FC	20	8	3	9	48	42	27
7	NuPS	20	7	5	8	31	31	26
8	GrIFK Reservi	20	8	2	10	36	41	26
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	20	6	3	11	31	50	21
10	HooGee	20	6	2	12	37	51	20
11	EPS Reservi	20	5	5	10	30	52	20
12	MPS	20	4	5	11	22	38	17

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ESPA	GrIFK Reservi
HooGee	0-2 L	2-0 W
EPS Reservi	1-3 L	0-2 L
Poxyt	0-3 L	3-1 W
EIF Academy	1-1 D	1-2 L
MPS	2-2 D	3-0 W
Gilla FC	4-1 W	1-7 L
NuPS	2-0 W	0-3 L
PPJ/Ruoholahti	1-0 W	3-2 W
LOPA	2-0 W	2-3 L
LePa	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: ESPA (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ESPA

WWWWWDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
11/09	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	9	4	L
04/09	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
28/08	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
21/08	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
12/08	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	3-0	4-1	3	4	W
07/08	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
31/07	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
27/07	LOPA Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
03/07	LePa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	3	W

GrIFK Reservi

LLLWWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	LOPA Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-3	4	2	L
09/09	LePa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
05/09	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-7	0	4	L
30/08	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
21/08	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
16/08	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	3	1	W
06/08	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
30/07	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	3	8	L
26/07	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
03/07	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ESPA vs GrIFK Reservi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ESPA win (55%). Probabilities: ESPA 55%, draw 22%, GrIFK Reservi 24%.

How many goals are expected in ESPA vs GrIFK Reservi?

The model expects 3.27 goals (ESPA 2 · GrIFK Reservi 1.27), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in ESPA vs GrIFK Reservi?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.