Football · Finland Kolmonen · 03/10, 11:00

Prediction: HooGee vs Gilla FC

Team pages: HooGee · Gilla FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.45Total

HooGee2.23

Gilla FC2.23

1X2

40% 21% 40%

HooGee Draw Gilla FC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

HooGee 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLWDWL

Gilla FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDWWLW

Head-to-head

HooGee 0–1 Gilla FC (1 last)

Gilla FC6-3HooGee

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HooGee 1465 · Gilla FC 1538

	HooGee	Draw	Gilla FC
Our model	40%	21%	40%
Market	40%	21%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 4.45 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gilla FC (rating 1465 vs 1538).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HooGee	Gilla FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.3	2.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	56/33/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.1	1.8 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X4.33

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.90

Under 4.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:04 +4’	2.25	4.33	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HooGee 0–0–1 Gilla FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	Gilla FC	6-3 HT 3-2	HooGee

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	21	15	4	2	72	29	49
2	ESPA	21	13	3	5	49	23	42
3	LePa	21	11	3	7	42	37	36
4	Poxyt	21	10	3	8	45	43	33
5	Gilla FC	21	9	3	9	52	42	30
6	LoPa	21	9	3	9	34	38	30
7	NuPS	21	7	6	8	31	31	27
8	GrIFK Reservi	21	8	2	11	36	47	26
9	EPS Reservi	21	6	5	10	33	53	23
10	PPJ/Ruoholahti	21	6	4	11	31	50	22
11	HooGee	21	6	2	13	38	54	20
12	MPS	21	4	6	11	24	40	18

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HooGee	Gilla FC
EIF Academy	1-3 L	2-4 L
ESPA	2-0 W	1-4 L
MPS	3-3 D	3-2 W
LoPa	3-1 W	4-0 W
GrIFK Reservi	0-2 L	7-1 W
EPS Reservi	2-0 W	2-2 D
LePa	4-5 L	0-2 L
PPJ/Ruoholahti	2-3 L	2-0 W
NuPS	3-4 L	5-0 W
Poxyt	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 6 L	5 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Gilla FC (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HooGee

LLLLWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-3	3	2	L
17/09	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	6	3	W
10/09	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-3	14	2	D
03/09	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-1	8	4	W
30/08	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
20/08	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
13/08	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	4-5	3	3	L
06/08	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
31/07	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-4	1	4	L
23/07	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	6	4	L

Gilla FC

LWLLWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	3-0	4-0	2	9	W
17/09	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-4	4	5	L
12/09	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-0	1	7	W
05/09	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-1	7-1	10	4	W
28/08	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	6	0	D
20/08	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
12/08	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-3	1-4	8	4	L
08/08	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
31/07	MPS Finland Kolmonen	3-1	3-2	4	7	W
22/07	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	8	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HooGee vs Gilla FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HooGee win (40%). Probabilities: HooGee 40%, draw 21%, Gilla FC 40%.

How many goals are expected in HooGee vs Gilla FC?

The model expects 4.45 goals (HooGee 2.23 · Gilla FC 2.23), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in HooGee vs Gilla FC?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.